Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots102 × 0.1+10.2
- PIM102 × 0.05+5.1
- ice time (min)882 × 0.01+8.8
- total85 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24285 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 8:36/game over the last 6, down 31% from 12:24 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 12 of 15 for ANA — missed 3 games (2026-10-16, 2026-10-19, 2026-11-08).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 5.9% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.7% (55 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.6%, worth PD −2.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 32 | 10 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:29 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 24.4% | 26.7% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 14 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 54.5% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 12 | 25 | 37 | — | 73 | — | 0 | — | 12:39 | — | — | 119 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | vs BUF | Assist | 10:38 · P1 · EV | McQueen (Colangelo, Jensen) → 3-1 | Colangelo · Vatrano · McQueen Jensen · Mitchell | Norris · Zucker · McLeod Zellweger · Power Ellis (G) |
| Oct 27 | vs VAN | Assist | 15:52 · P1 · EV | Greer (LaCombe, Colangelo) → 1-0 | Colangelo · Greer · Washe LaCombe · Warren | Bains · Cotter · Sasson Hronek · Pettersson Meriläinen (G) |
| Oct 27 | vs VAN | Assist | 12:23 · P3 · EV | Greer (Colangelo, LaCombe) → 5-2 | Colangelo · Greer · Washe LaCombe · Warren | O'Connor · Chytil · Lekkerimäki Buium · Hronek Meriläinen (G) |
| Oct 22 | @ NJD | Assist | 08:20 · P3 · EV | Washe (LaCombe, Colangelo) → 1-2 | Colangelo · Greer · Washe LaCombe · Luneau | Bratt · Gritsyuk · Hughes Pesce · Hughes Daws (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 46 | 10 | |
| Tim Washe ANA | 36 | 10 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov ANA | 36 | 9 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 31 | 9 | |
| Noah Warren ANA | 30 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats