Sam Reinhart
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 81?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots265 × 0.1+26.5
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1685 × 0.01+16.9
- total195 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242195 = 81/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 195 points is 81 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 60 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 16.7% (1667 shots before this season) — that's 0.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.7%, worth PD −0.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Sabres | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 24.4% |
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 79 | 23 | 19 | 42 | -8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 16:50 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 13.9% | 33.3% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 79 | 17 | 30 | 47 | -11 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 17:13 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 9.6% | 40.9% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 82 | 25 | 25 | 50 | -24 | 26 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 17:06 | 5 | 0 | 188 | 13.3% | 39.4% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 82 | 22 | 43 | 65 | -10 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18:57 | 1 | 0 | 180 | 12.2% | 35.6% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 69 | 22 | 28 | 50 | -15 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 20:38 | 2 | 0 | 144 | 15.3% | 35.7% |
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 54 | 25 | 15 | 40 | -28 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 19:32 | 5 | 0 | 130 | 19.2% | 45.6% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 78 | 33 | 49 | 82 | 25 | 13 | 16 | 31 | 0 | 17:46 | 6 | 0 | 186 | 17.7% | 48.5% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 82 | 31 | 36 | 67 | -12 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 19:47 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 13.7% | 50.6% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 82 | 57 | 37 | 94 | 29 | 31 | 27 | 34 | 5 | 20:18 | 11 | 3 | 233 | 24.5% | 44.2% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 79 | 39 | 42 | 81 | 6 | 27 | 13 | 30 | 5 | 20:30 | 4 | 0 | 213 | 18.3% | 41.2% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 64 | 29 | 32 | 61 | -18 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 21:17 | 6 | 1 | 166 | 17.5% | 38.1% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 20:13 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 17.2% | 46.6% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 34 | 31 | 65 | — | 33 | — | 29 | — | 18:10 | — | — | 210 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Sam Reinhart (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 03:52 | EV | Goal | #? (Verhaeghe, Jones) → 1-0 | Eller · Verhaeghe Jones · Mikkola | DeBrincat · Kasper · Finnie Englund · Johansson Gibson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 17:44 | EV | Goal | #? (Lundell, Luostarinen) → 4-1 | Luostarinen · Lundell Jones · Mikkola | Coyle · Olivier · Sillinger · Fantilli Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 19:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Tkachuk, Reinhart) → 3-4 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones | Jenner · Tuch · Beauvillier Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 04:43 | EV | Assist | Vilmanis (Reinhart, Verhaeghe) → 1-0 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Vilmanis Ekblad · Forsling | Teravainen · Smith · Nazar Cole · Kaiser Knight (G) |
| P2 13:20 | EV | Assist | #? (Vilmanis, Reinhart) → 3-0 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Vilmanis Mikkola | Teravainen · Smith · Frondell Vlasic · Levshunov Knight (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA | 162 | 10 | |
| Seth Jones FLA | 94 | 10 | |
| Lars Eller FLA | 75 | 10 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 64 | 10 | |
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 61 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats