Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 22?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists9 × 1+9
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots79 × 0.1+7.9
- PIM89 × 0.05+4.5
- ice time (min)772 × 0.01+7.7
- total53 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24253 = 22/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 53 points is 22 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 13 of 16 for EDM — missed 3 games (2026-10-24, 2026-11-03, 2026-11-05).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.3% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (685 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.5%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 50.6% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 42 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 9.1% | 52.9% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 60 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 8.0% | 39.3% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 79 | 17 | 14 | 31 | 28 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 6 | 0 | 120 | 14.2% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 82 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 9 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13:45 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 14.6% | 45.4% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 57 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -14 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13:50 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 10.5% | 43.9% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 74 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 5.2% | 57.1% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 55.6% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 8 | 9 | 17 | — | 68 | — | 0 | — | 11:40 | — | — | 105 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Trent over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Shea EDM | 40 | 10 | |
| Isaac Howard EDM | 34 | 6 | |
| Ty Emberson EDM | 33 | 10 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 32 | 10 | |
| Filip Hallander EDM | 31 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats