Wins by season
Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 70?
Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:
- proj wins29 × 4.5+130.5
- proj shutouts2.5 × 3+7.5
- SV% 0.891 vs .900-0.009 × 250-2.3
- GAA 3.18 vs 2.70-0.48 × 50-24
- total112 pool points · an elite goalie season scores 160112 = 70/100
Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.
Season stats — goaltending
NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.
| Season | Team | GP | GS | W | L | OT | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-21 | BUF | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.88 | 90.6% | 0 |
| 21-22 | BUF | 9 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2.74 | 91.7% | 0 |
| 22-23 | BUF | 33 | 32 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 3.61 | 89.2% | 0 |
| 23-24 | BUF | 54 | 51 | 27 | 22 | 4 | 2.57 | 91.0% | 5 |
| 24-25 | BUF | 55 | 55 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 3.20 | 88.7% | 2 |
| 25-26 | BUF | 41 | 39 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 2.61 | 90.5% | 1 |
| 26-27 | BUF | 12 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3.51 | 86.7% | 0 |
| 60-start proj | BUF | 60 | 60 | 29 | 23 | 11 | 3.18 | 89.1% | 2.5 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats