Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots164 × 0.1+16.4
- PIM109 × 0.05+5.5
- ice time (min)1370 × 0.01+13.7
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.3% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (277 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.6%, worth PD −1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 81 | 13 | 8 | 21 | -3 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:08 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 10.9% | 20.0% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 82 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 12 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15:05 | 3 | 0 | 152 | 13.2% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 82 | 20 | 18 | 38 | -12 | 65 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16:51 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 12.7% | 48.3% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16:19 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 10.3% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 16 | 21 | 38 | — | 83 | — | 8 | — | 15:53 | — | — | 154 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Arthur Kaliyev (2023-23) · Matt Coronato (2025-25) · Bobby Brink (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 09:01 | EV | Assist | Bjorkstrand (Tolvanen, Cuylle) → 2-0 | Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Cuylle · Rempe · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Schneider · Morrow · Smits | Buchnevich · Berggren · McMichael · Neighbours · McTavish · Dvorsky Fowler · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ OTT | |||||
| P2 10:07 | SH | Goal | Cuylle (Laba, Fox) → 1-3 | Laba · Cuylle Fox · Pettersson | Stützle · Batherson · Cozens · Halliday Sanderson Johansson (G) |
| P3 15:32 | EV | Assist | Dorofeyev (Cuylle, Laba) → 4-5 | Dorofeyev · Laba · Cuylle Fox · Gavrikov | Batherson · Cozens · Foegele Matinpalo · Kleven Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Will over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Laba NYR | 101 | 10 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen NYR | 74 | 10 | |
| Braden Schneider NYR | 61 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand NYR | 56 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats