Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 87?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists55 × 1+55
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1986 × 0.01+19.9
- total144 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166144 = 87/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 144 points is 87 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.5% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.8% (1305 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.1%, worth PD +0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Senators | 60 | 5 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 20:07 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2010-11 | Senators | 75 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -30 | 50 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 23:31 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Senators | 81 | 19 | 59 | 78 | 16 | 42 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 25:19 | 5 | 0 | 261 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Senators | 17 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 27:09 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Senators | 82 | 20 | 54 | 74 | -15 | 36 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 27:04 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Senators | 82 | 21 | 45 | 66 | 7 | 42 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 27:15 | 3 | 1 | 292 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Senators | 82 | 16 | 66 | 82 | -2 | 50 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 28:58 | 3 | 2 | 248 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Senators | 77 | 17 | 54 | 71 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 26:50 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Senators | 71 | 9 | 53 | 62 | -25 | 36 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 26:44 | 2 | 2 | 196 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Sharks | 53 | 3 | 42 | 45 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 24:29 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sharks | 56 | 6 | 34 | 40 | -15 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 24:31 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Sharks | 52 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -18 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 23:36 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Sharks | 50 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 23:28 | 2 | 1 | 117 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sharks | 82 | 25 | 76 | 101 | -26 | 36 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 25:37 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 82 | 11 | 45 | 56 | 4 | 44 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 24:16 | 4 | 2 | 213 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 82 | 11 | 42 | 53 | -24 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 23:14 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 75 | 15 | 51 | 66 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23:36 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 23:38 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 11 | 55 | 67 | — | 29 | — | 28 | — | 21:52 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Adam Fox (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Zach Werenski (2025-25) · Rasmus Dahlin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ SJS | |||||
| P3 03:28 | PP | Assist | Kindel (Rakell, Karlsson) → 2-0 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Kindel Karlsson | Wennberg · Graf Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 08:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Malkin, Karlsson) → 1-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Kindel Karlsson | Granlund · Carlsson LaCombe · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P2 17:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Malkin, Karlsson) → 4-2 | Malkin · Rakell Karlsson · Stastney | Haula · Armia · Connors Doughty · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ MTL | |||||
| P1 02:08 | PP | Goal | #? (Crosby, Novak) → 1-0 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Koivunen | Anderson · Newhook Guhle · Xhekaj Fowler (G) |
| P2 03:45 | EV | Assist | #? (Karlsson) → 3-4 | Crosby · Novak Karlsson · Stastney | Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Xhekaj · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Erik over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell PIT | 109 | 10 | |
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 106 | 10 | |
| Spencer Stastney PIT | 91 | 10 | |
| Ben Kindel PIT | 73 | 10 | |
| Tommy Novak PIT | 71 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats