Spencer Stastney
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals3 × 3+9
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots90 × 0.1+9
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1457 × 0.01+14.6
- total52 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16652 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 52 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.7% (91 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.6%, worth PD −1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Predators | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 20 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 30 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 3 | 19 | 22 | — | 21 | — | 0 | — | 18:08 | — | — | 96 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 01:09 | EV | Assist | Novak (Korczak, Stastney) → 1-1 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Stastney · Korczak | Stone · Eichel · Howden McNabb · Theodore Hill (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs FLA | |||||
| P3 01:40 | EV | Assist | Malkin (Lapierre, Stastney) → 3-0 | Lapierre · Koivunen · Malkin Stastney · Karlsson | Lundell · Verhaeghe · Reinhardt Ekblad · Forsling Black (G) |
| Oct 19 · @ UTA | |||||
| P3 02:55 | EV | Assist | Chinakhov (Kuzmenko, Stastney) → 3-5 | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Weegar · Simashev Cossa (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Spencer over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 91 | 10 | |
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 62 | 10 | |
| Rickard Rakell PIT | 58 | 10 | |
| Evgeni Malkin PIT | 49 | 9 | |
| Kris Letang PIT | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats