Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 98?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists65 × 1+65
- PP points49 × 0.5+24.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots225 × 0.1+22.5
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)2137 × 0.01+21.4
- total162 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166162 = 98/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 162 points is 98 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 3.9% shooting on 51 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.7% (2077 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.4%, worth PD −2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Predators | 52 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:23 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Predators | 48 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -7 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:32 | 1 | 1 | 96 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Predators | 72 | 13 | 27 | 40 | -2 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 26:25 | 2 | 0 | 168 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Predators | 81 | 15 | 40 | 55 | 15 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 26:28 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 81 | 14 | 47 | 61 | -3 | 43 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 25:29 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Predators | 72 | 12 | 37 | 49 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 25:04 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 75 | 14 | 39 | 53 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 24:28 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 82 | 15 | 41 | 56 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 25:10 | 4 | 0 | 274 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 69 | 16 | 49 | 65 | 22 | 41 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 25:47 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 48 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -11 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 24:21 | 3 | 2 | 141 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 80 | 23 | 73 | 96 | 13 | 46 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 25:33 | 2 | 0 | 281 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 67 | 18 | 41 | 59 | 5 | 36 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 25:10 | 5 | 1 | 269 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 82 | 23 | 62 | 85 | 12 | 45 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 24:38 | 5 | 2 | 268 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 53 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -26 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 25:02 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 68 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -15 | 30 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 24:53 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 25:26 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 8 | 65 | 73 | — | 51 | — | 32 | — | 22:59 | — | — | 174 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Adam Fox (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Zach Werenski (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 08:05 | EV | Assist | #? (Hoglander, Josi) → 3-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander Josi · Wilsby | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Warren · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P3 16:04 | EV | Assist | #? (Bourque, Josi) → 4-2 | O'Reilly · Bourque Josi · Wilsby | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 16:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Bourque, Josi) → 1-1 | O'Reilly · Forsberg · Bourque Josi | Toropchenko · Suter Parayko · Broberg Hofer (G) |
| P2 09:02 | EV | Assist | Colton (Drury, #?) → 2-1 | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Struble · Hunt | Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki Fowler · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ COL | |||||
| P4 02:18 | PP | Assist | Stamkos (Josi, O'Reilly) → 3-2 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg Josi | Nelson Burns · Kulak Blackwood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Roman over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 163 | 10 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly NSH | 143 | 10 | |
| Steven Stamkos NSH | 129 | 10 | |
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 89 | 10 | |
| Mavrik Bourque NSH | 72 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats