Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 73?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists38 × 1+38
- PP points40 × 0.5+20
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1753 × 0.01+17.5
- total177 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242177 = 73/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 177 points is 73 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.6% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.4% (1466 shots before this season) — that's 2.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.6%, worth PD +4.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Stamkos 23.4%, Josi 3.9%, Wilsby 4.2%, Bourque 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Avalanche | 81 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:46 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 5.9% | 47.8% |
| 2010-11 | Avalanche | 74 | 13 | 13 | 26 | -7 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16:03 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 10.9% | 51.8% |
| 2011-12 | Avalanche | 81 | 18 | 37 | 55 | -1 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 19:32 | 3 | 2 | 189 | 9.5% | 52.8% |
| 2012-13 | Avalanche | 29 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 18:30 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 9.1% | 52.8% |
| 2013-14 | Avalanche | 80 | 28 | 36 | 64 | -1 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 19:49 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 13.9% | 51.7% |
| 2014-15 | Avalanche | 82 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -5 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 19:43 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 9.9% | 53.4% |
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 71 | 21 | 39 | 60 | -16 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 21:44 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 13.4% | 56.5% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 72 | 20 | 35 | 55 | -1 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 21:28 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 10.6% | 58.0% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 81 | 24 | 37 | 61 | -23 | 2 | 15 | 23 | 0 | 20:49 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 10.4% | 60.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 82 | 28 | 49 | 77 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 20:46 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 12.0% | 56.9% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 71 | 12 | 49 | 61 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 20:34 | 3 | 1 | 118 | 10.2% | 56.6% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 56 | 24 | 30 | 54 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 20:45 | 4 | 2 | 129 | 18.6% | 58.8% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 78 | 21 | 37 | 58 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 19:05 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 12.5% | 56.8% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 40 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -24 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18:24 | 3 | 1 | 80 | 15.0% | 54.1% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 13 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:32 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 18.2% | 62.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 82 | 26 | 43 | 69 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 19:46 | 1 | 0 | 180 | 14.4% | 53.9% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 79 | 21 | 32 | 53 | -23 | 24 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 18:59 | 3 | 0 | 151 | 13.9% | 55.7% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 81 | 25 | 49 | 74 | 8 | 22 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 20:24 | 8 | 0 | 154 | 16.2% | 55.1% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -6 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 20:52 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 22.6% | 60.2% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 27 | 38 | 64 | — | 44 | — | 26 | — | 18:40 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan O'Reilly (2025-25) · Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · Pavel Zacha (2025-25) · Mika Zibanejad (2025-25) · Nick Schmaltz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · @ COL | |||||
| P1 04:01 | EV | Assist | #? (O'Reilly) → 1-0 | O'Reilly · Edstrom Skjei · Wilsby | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Burns · Juulsen Blackwood (G) |
| P4 02:18 | PP | Assist | Stamkos (Josi, O'Reilly) → 3-2 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg Josi | Nelson Burns · Kulak Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs TBL | |||||
| P3 07:27 | PP | Assist | #? (Forsberg, O'Reilly) → 4-4 | O'Reilly · Marchessault · Forsberg Josi | Cirelli · Hagel McDonagh · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs WSH | |||||
| P1 12:48 | PP | Assist | Forsberg (O'Reilly, Josi) → 1-0 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Marchessault · Forsberg Josi | Jenner · Wilson Roy Lindgren (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs NYI | |||||
| P3 04:16 | EV | Goal | O'Reilly (Hunt, Forsberg) → 3-3 | Forsberg · Bourque · O'Reilly · Stamkos Hague · Hunt | Duclair · Heineman · Palat Pelech · DeAngelo Varlamov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos NSH | 159 | 10 | |
| Roman Josi NSH | 143 | 10 | |
| Adam Wilsby NSH | 96 | 10 | |
| Mavrik Bourque NSH | 93 | 7 | |
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 68 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats