Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 54?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots94 × 0.1+9.4
- PIM10 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1277 × 0.01+12.8
- total89 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16689 = 54/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 89 points is 54 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 17:45/game over the last 6, up 28% from 13:55 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for TBL — missed 1 game (2026-10-24).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 21.1% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.1% (1492 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.5%, worth PD +3.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Hagel 15.7%, Moser 0.0%, Cirelli 17.9%, Geekie 16.7%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Lightning | 74 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -3 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 2010-11 | Lightning | 79 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:01 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Lightning | 61 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -9 | 65 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:06 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Lightning | 44 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:40 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Lightning | 75 | 13 | 42 | 55 | 5 | 53 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 22:26 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 59 | 10 | 28 | 38 | 12 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 22:41 | 2 | 1 | 115 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 78 | 10 | 37 | 47 | 21 | 46 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 23:04 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 79 | 16 | 56 | 72 | 3 | 47 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 24:31 | 5 | 2 | 166 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 77 | 17 | 46 | 63 | 32 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 25:51 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 7.9% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 70 | 12 | 42 | 54 | 24 | 44 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 22:46 | 4 | 2 | 182 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 66 | 11 | 44 | 55 | 27 | 31 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 24:04 | 3 | 0 | 155 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 54 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 25:03 | 2 | 2 | 136 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 82 | 20 | 65 | 85 | 26 | 36 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 25:05 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 76 | 9 | 40 | 49 | 10 | 42 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 23:43 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 78 | 13 | 63 | 76 | 18 | 76 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 24:48 | 2 | 0 | 168 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 79 | 15 | 51 | 66 | 18 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23:05 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 33 | 1 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 18:52 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 15 | 15 | 30 | — | 25 | — | 5 | — | 16:48 | — | — | 97 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Dougie Hamilton (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Vince Dunn (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 04:12 | PP | Goal | #? (Cirelli, Hagel) → 1-0 | Cirelli · Hagel · Goncalves · Geekie | Smith · Nazar Vlasic · Kaiser Soderblom (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NSH | |||||
| P2 03:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Kucherov, Point) → 3-2 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Point Crozier | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Bourque Skjei · Perbix Annunen (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ VGK | |||||
| P2 17:56 | EV | Goal | Hedman → 5-2 | Guentzel · Point · Goncalves Hedman · Lilleberg | Karlsson · Marner · Howden Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Victor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 65 | 10 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 64 | 10 | |
| Anthony Cirelli TBL | 53 | 9 | |
| Conor Geekie TBL | 49 | 10 | |
| Jake Guentzel TBL | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats