Anthony Cirelli
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots131 × 0.1+13.1
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1432 × 0.01+14.3
- total139 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242139 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 139 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for TBL — missed 1 game (2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.9% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.4% (1008 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.5%, worth PD +1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 18 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 19.2% | 44.9% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 82 | 19 | 20 | 39 | 25 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14:51 | 5 | 1 | 123 | 15.4% | 52.8% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 68 | 16 | 28 | 44 | 28 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18:27 | 3 | 1 | 113 | 14.2% | 47.5% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 50 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 17:45 | 3 | 0 | 75 | 12.0% | 49.1% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 76 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 15 | 70 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 18:19 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 11.6% | 46.5% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 58 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16:34 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 9.9% | 51.4% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 79 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 2 | 38 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 18:31 | 3 | 1 | 129 | 15.5% | 49.2% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 80 | 27 | 32 | 59 | 30 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 18:41 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 16.9% | 50.1% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 71 | 23 | 29 | 52 | 38 | 48 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:19 | 3 | 1 | 125 | 18.4% | 48.2% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 18 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:03 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 17.9% | 53.1% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 22 | 36 | 57 | — | 29 | — | 6 | — | 16:18 | — | — | 137 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jamie Benn (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25) · Ivan Barbashev (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P2 04:33 | EV | Assist | #? (Cirelli, Carlson) → 3-0 | Kucherov · Cirelli Carlson · D'Astous | Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Carlson, Cirelli) → 6-3 | Cirelli · Hagel Carlson · D'Astous | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin Ellis (G) |
| P3 15:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Kucherov, Cirelli) → 8-3 | Kucherov · Cirelli Carlson · D'Astous | Thompson · Krebs · Benson Zellweger · Metsa Ellis (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ WPG | |||||
| P3 10:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Cirelli) → 1-3 | Guentzel · Cirelli Crozier · Moser | Mercer · Yager · Björck Fleury · Samberg Skinner (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 04:12 | PP | Assist | #? (Cirelli, Hagel) → 1-0 | Cirelli · Hagel · Goncalves · Geekie | Smith · Nazar Vlasic · Kaiser Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anthony over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 134 | 10 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 63 | 10 | |
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 62 | 10 | |
| Victor Hedman TBL | 55 | 10 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats