Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points15 × 0.5+7.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots148 × 0.1+14.8
- PIM124 × 0.05+6.2
- ice time (min)1400 × 0.01+14
- total137 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242137 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 137 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.2% (1309 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Kings | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| 2010-11 | Kings | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2011-12 | Flyers | 54 | 12 | 6 | 18 | -7 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 14:07 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 12.4% | 46.1% |
| 2012-13 | Flyers | 47 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 15:32 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 10.1% | 45.5% |
| 2013-14 | Flyers | 82 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 0 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 15:45 | 6 | 1 | 178 | 11.2% | 43.2% |
| 2014-15 | Flyers | 82 | 18 | 29 | 47 | -5 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 17:05 | 6 | 1 | 156 | 11.5% | 46.7% |
| 2015-16 | Flyers | 80 | 26 | 33 | 59 | 3 | 33 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 16:54 | 5 | 0 | 178 | 14.6% | 44.8% |
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 79 | 25 | 30 | 55 | -13 | 38 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 17:48 | 7 | 2 | 178 | 14.0% | 47.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blues | 82 | 28 | 42 | 70 | 10 | 56 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 19:44 | 8 | 2 | 210 | 13.3% | 48.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 72 | 17 | 37 | 54 | 3 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 18:35 | 5 | 1 | 159 | 10.7% | 47.5% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 71 | 25 | 33 | 58 | 3 | 44 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 18:28 | 4 | 0 | 138 | 18.1% | 49.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 56 | 16 | 20 | 36 | -2 | 35 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 19:09 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 14.2% | 52.3% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 62 | 24 | 34 | 58 | 21 | 33 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 17:47 | 3 | 1 | 111 | 21.6% | 49.1% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 82 | 21 | 44 | 65 | -27 | 50 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 18:26 | 3 | 1 | 144 | 14.6% | 46.5% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 82 | 20 | 26 | 46 | -22 | 56 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 17:47 | 3 | 2 | 170 | 11.8% | 49.3% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 82 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 3 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17:34 | 5 | 2 | 145 | 12.4% | 52.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 61 | 12 | 16 | 28 | -23 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:41 | 2 | 0 | 87 | 13.8% | 54.2% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 19 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -5 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:04 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 18.8% | 53.8% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:50 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 18.8% | 60.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 21 | 31 | 52 | — | 88 | — | 11 | — | 16:03 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: William Karlsson (2024-24) · Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 01:11 | PP | Assist | Eklund (Schenn, Schaefer) → 2-1 | Schenn · Horvat · Holmstrom · Eklund Schaefer | Dellandrea · Graf Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 11:54 | EV | Assist | #? (DeAngelo, Schenn) → 4-2 | Schenn · Heineman Pelech · DeAngelo | Meier · Hischier · Evangelista Pesce · Hughes Allen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CAR | |||||
| P2 05:44 | EV | Goal | Schenn (Eklund, Kessel) → 2-2 | Schenn · Heineman · Eklund Kessel · Schaefer | Hall · Jankowski · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Valimaki Bussi (G) |
| P2 17:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Schenn, Heineman) → 3-3 | Schenn · Heineman Mayfield · Kessel | Hall · Jankowski · Jarvis Walker · Miller Bussi (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 08:07 | EV | Goal | Schenn (Palat) → 2-0 | Schenn · Duclair · Palat Stanley · DeAngelo | Forsberg · Drury · Edstrom Struble · Hague Saros (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brayden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Eklund NYI | 116 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 94 | 10 | |
| Emil Heineman NYI | 74 | 9 | |
| Tony DeAngelo NYI | 52 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats