Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots128 × 0.1+12.8
- PIM94 × 0.05+4.7
- ice time (min)1282 × 0.01+12.8
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.7% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.5% (238 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD −2.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 62 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -6 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11:24 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 15.6% | 14.3% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 82 | 22 | 9 | 31 | -13 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16:37 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 12.6% | 35.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:18 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 12 | 24 | 36 | — | 72 | — | 4 | — | 15:14 | — | — | 135 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Collin Graf (2025-25) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Andreas Johnsson (2021-21) · Lucas Wallmark (2019-19) · James Neal (2020-20).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 17:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Horvat, Heineman) → 2-1 | Palmieri · Horvat · Heineman Stanley | Meier · Hischier · Evangelista Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CAR | |||||
| P2 17:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Schenn, Heineman) → 3-3 | Schenn · Heineman Mayfield · Kessel | Hall · Jankowski · Jarvis Walker · Miller Bussi (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P1 16:36 | EV | Assist | Schaefer (Heineman, Eklund) → 1-1 | Schenn · Heineman · Eklund Stanley · Schaefer | Kaprizov · Yurov · Shabanov Bogosian · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 17:45 | EV | Assist | Schenn (Duclair, Heineman) → 3-3 | Schenn · Duclair · Heineman Pelech · DeAngelo | Robertson · Johnston · Seguin Heiskanen · Myers Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs LAK | |||||
| P2 14:06 | PP | Assist | Eklund (DeAngelo, Heineman) → 1-2 | Duclair · Eklund · Pageau · Heineman DeAngelo | Laughton · Lee Edmundson · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Emil over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn NYI | 74 | 9 | |
| Victor Eklund NYI | 73 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 56 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 54 | 9 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 51 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats