Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots94 × 0.1+9.4
- PIM114 × 0.05+5.7
- ice time (min)1719 × 0.01+17.2
- total60 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16660 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 60 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.3% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 3.7% (850 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.1%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Islanders | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Islanders | 44 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Islanders | 78 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:16 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Islanders | 78 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 38 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 56 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:03 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 78 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 20 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 61 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 15 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 58 | 1 | 15 | 16 | -2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | 71 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 60 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 82 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:53 | 2 | 0 | 122 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 5 | 13 | 18 | — | 89 | — | 0 | — | 19:53 | — | — | 98 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Troy Stecher (2025-25) · Connor Clifton (2025-25) · Nicolas Hague (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P3 07:14 | EV | Goal | Pelech → 3-2 | Schenn · Heineman · Eklund Pelech · DeAngelo | McCarron · Trenin · Sturm Bogosian · Maatta Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pulock NYI | 79 | 6 | |
| Bo Horvat NYI | 72 | 10 | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI | 69 | 10 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI | 61 | 9 | |
| Kyle Palmieri NYI | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats