Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points30 × 0.5+15
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots277 × 0.1+27.7
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1771 × 0.01+17.7
- total178 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242178 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 178 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 56 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (1834 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD −1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Canucks | 68 | 13 | 12 | 25 | -8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:16 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 14.0% | 51.4% |
| 2015-16 | Canucks | 82 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -30 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 17:08 | 4 | 1 | 155 | 10.3% | 50.9% |
| 2016-17 | Canucks | 81 | 20 | 32 | 52 | -7 | 27 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 18:02 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 12.7% | 50.5% |
| 2017-18 | Canucks | 64 | 22 | 22 | 44 | -1 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 19:21 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 13.9% | 53.8% |
| 2018-19 | Canucks | 82 | 27 | 34 | 61 | -4 | 33 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 20:50 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 11.9% | 53.7% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 69 | 22 | 31 | 53 | -15 | 21 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 19:44 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 12.4% | 57.3% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 56 | 19 | 20 | 39 | -6 | 23 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 19:53 | 3 | 1 | 131 | 14.5% | 52.9% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 70 | 31 | 21 | 52 | 3 | 40 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 19:31 | 4 | 0 | 194 | 16.0% | 57.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 49 | 31 | 23 | 54 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 20:49 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 21.7% | 56.0% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 30 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 20:24 | 1 | 0 | 86 | 8.1% | 58.5% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 81 | 33 | 35 | 68 | -1 | 39 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 19:42 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 13.3% | 53.9% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 81 | 28 | 29 | 57 | -4 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 20:10 | 7 | 3 | 243 | 11.5% | 58.2% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 68 | 31 | 26 | 57 | 8 | 40 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 20:46 | 7 | 2 | 226 | 13.7% | 56.3% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 21:21 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 13.8% | 57.4% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 26 | 36 | 62 | — | 30 | — | 21 | — | 18:39 | — | — | 213 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Rickard Rakell (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25) · Tomas Hertl (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 06:14 | EV | Assist | Hutton (Holmstrom, Horvat) → 1-0 | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Hutton · Kessel | Goodrow · Ostapchuk · Graf Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 17:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Horvat, Heineman) → 2-1 | Palmieri · Horvat · Heineman Stanley | Meier · Hischier · Evangelista Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
| P2 05:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Palmieri, Horvat) → 3-2 | Palmieri · Horvat Hutton · Kessel | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Kovacevic · Chisholm Allen (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P2 01:41 | PP | Goal | Horvat (Holmstrom, Schaefer) → 2-1 | Palmieri · Schenn · Horvat · Holmstrom Schaefer | Coleman · McCarron Brodin · Kiersted Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ NSH | |||||
| P2 01:08 | EV | Goal | Horvat (Schaefer, Holmstrom) → 3-0 | Horvat · Palmieri · Holmstrom Pulock · Schaefer | Drury · Edstrom · Stamkos Struble · Hague |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Bo over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri NYI | 146 | 10 | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI | 126 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 117 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 79 | 10 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 72 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats