Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points10 × 0.5+5
- game-winning goals10 × 0.5+5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots148 × 0.1+14.8
- PIM10 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1550 × 0.01+15.5
- total132 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242132 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 132 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 20:23/game over the last 6, up 15% from 17:39 earlier in the season.
- Hot window: 8.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 17.6% (307 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.3%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 50 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 75 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:19 | 3 | 0 | 72 | 20.8% | 31.6% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 75 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 16:52 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 79 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16:44 | 5 | 2 | 100 | 19.0% | 23.5% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:24 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 22 | 25 | 47 | — | 24 | — | 6 | — | 17:06 | — | — | 147 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Zachary Bolduc (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 06:14 | EV | Assist | Hutton (Holmstrom, Horvat) → 1-0 | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Hutton · Kessel | Goodrow · Ostapchuk · Graf Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 15:06 | EV | Assist | Duclair (Holmstrom, Pageau) → 1-0 | Pageau · Duclair · Holmstrom Hutton · Kessel | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
| P2 05:08 | EV | Goal | #? (Palmieri, Horvat) → 3-2 | Palmieri · Horvat Hutton · Kessel | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Kovacevic · Chisholm Allen (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P2 01:41 | PP | Assist | Horvat (Holmstrom, Schaefer) → 2-1 | Palmieri · Schenn · Horvat · Holmstrom Schaefer | Coleman · McCarron Brodin · Kiersted Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ NSH | |||||
| P2 01:08 | EV | Assist | Horvat (Schaefer, Holmstrom) → 3-0 | Horvat · Palmieri · Holmstrom Pulock · Schaefer | Drury · Edstrom · Stamkos Struble · Hague |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Simon over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat NYI | 126 | 10 | |
| Kyle Palmieri NYI | 102 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 88 | 10 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 69 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats