Kyle Palmieri
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots173 × 0.1+17.3
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1407 × 0.01+14.1
- total97 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24297 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 97 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.7/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.6% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.6% (1411 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.1%, worth PD −2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-11 | Ducks | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2011-12 | Ducks | 18 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 11.8% | 100.0% |
| 2012-13 | Ducks | 42 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:20 | 5 | 0 | 92 | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| 2013-14 | Ducks | 71 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 4 | 1 | 147 | 9.5% | 39.1% |
| 2014-15 | Ducks | 57 | 14 | 15 | 29 | -2 | 37 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 14:06 | 4 | 1 | 112 | 12.5% | 50.0% |
| 2015-16 | Devils | 82 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 3 | 39 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 17:48 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 13.5% | 37.0% |
| 2016-17 | Devils | 80 | 26 | 27 | 53 | 2 | 46 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 17:21 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 13.5% | 41.4% |
| 2017-18 | Devils | 62 | 24 | 20 | 44 | -1 | 30 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 17:19 | 5 | 0 | 181 | 13.3% | 33.3% |
| 2018-19 | Devils | 74 | 27 | 23 | 50 | -9 | 42 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 18:09 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 12.0% | 27.9% |
| 2019-20 | Devils | 65 | 25 | 20 | 45 | -4 | 41 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 17:07 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 16.1% | 32.4% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -2 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 17:47 | 2 | 0 | 84 | 9.5% | 35.3% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 17 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 66.7% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 69 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 57 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:37 | 6 | 0 | 156 | 9.6% | 29.4% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 55 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 13 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 17:06 | 3 | 0 | 122 | 13.1% | 37.5% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 82 | 30 | 24 | 54 | -16 | 26 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 17:13 | 8 | 1 | 218 | 13.8% | 38.2% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 82 | 24 | 24 | 48 | -17 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18:31 | 2 | 0 | 169 | 14.2% | 39.4% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 25 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -2 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 18:53 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 8.5% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 15 | 16 | 31 | — | 41 | — | 3 | — | 16:06 | — | — | 158 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 05:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Palmieri, Horvat) → 3-2 | Palmieri · Horvat Hutton · Kessel | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Kovacevic · Chisholm Allen (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 04:01 | EV | Goal | Palmieri (Pulock, Horvat) → 2-2 | Horvat · Palmieri · Holmstrom Pelech · Pulock | Robertson · Hintz · Seguin Heiskanen · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 17 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 18:33 | EV | Assist | Horvat (Palmieri) → 2-0 | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Pelech · Pulock | Blueger · Nylander · McKenna Rielly · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kyle over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat NYI | 146 | 10 | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI | 102 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 95 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 58 | 10 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats