Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots109 × 0.1+10.9
- PIM10 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1328 × 0.01+13.3
- total79 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24279 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 79 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.6
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.5% (866 shots before this season) — that's 2.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.0 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.1%, worth PD −2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Senators | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 14.3% | 48.8% |
| 2013-14 | Senators | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6.5% | 48.0% |
| 2014-15 | Senators | 50 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:11 | 2 | 0 | 97 | 10.3% | 49.2% |
| 2015-16 | Senators | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16:42 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 14.3% | 52.2% |
| 2016-17 | Senators | 82 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 2 | 0 | 169 | 7.1% | 54.8% |
| 2017-18 | Senators | 78 | 14 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16:44 | 2 | 1 | 147 | 9.5% | 51.2% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 39 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 4.8% | 53.8% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 60 | 24 | 16 | 40 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 19:18 | 5 | 1 | 135 | 17.8% | 53.2% |
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 55.7% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 54 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 16:47 | 3 | 0 | 81 | 17.3% | 56.7% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 77 | 18 | 21 | 39 | 0 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 17:40 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 14.3% | 55.3% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 70 | 13 | 27 | 40 | -2 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 17:37 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 10.6% | 57.2% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 82 | 11 | 22 | 33 | -8 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15:55 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 10.9% | 55.4% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 79 | 14 | 28 | 42 | 4 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 17:00 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 11.7% | 59.6% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 74 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15:40 | 4 | 2 | 81 | 21.0% | 59.1% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 17 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5% | 58.9% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 9 | 27 | 36 | — | 24 | — | 1 | — | 15:33 | — | — | 126 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Andrew Copp (2025-25) · Sean Couturier (2025-25) · Christian Dvorak (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 15:06 | EV | Assist | Duclair (Holmstrom, Pageau) → 1-0 | Pageau · Duclair · Holmstrom Hutton · Kessel | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ MIN | |||||
| P4 00:33 | EV | Assist | Schaefer (Pageau) → 4-3 | Pageau · Holmstrom Schaefer | Ek · Kaprizov Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 03:07 | EV | Assist | Duclair (Pageau, #?) → 1-0 | Duclair · Pageau Pulock · Stanley | Edstrom · O'Reilly Struble · Hague Saros (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 13:39 | EV | Assist | Palat (Pageau, Duclair) → 1-0 | Palat · Pageau · Duclair Stanley · Schaefer | Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson Luneau · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
| Oct 17 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 08:18 | EV | Assist | Duclair (Pageau) → 1-0 | Pageau · Duclair · Heineman DeAngelo · Kessel | Paul · Marchenko · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Blankenburg Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jean-Gabriel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair NYI | 102 | 10 | |
| Ondrej Palat NYI | 97 | 10 | |
| Adam Pelech NYI | 68 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 62 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 60 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats