Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots103 × 0.1+10.3
- PIM121 × 0.05+6.1
- ice time (min)1777 × 0.01+17.8
- total95 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16695 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 14 of 16 for EDM — missed 2 games (2026-10-24, 2026-10-26).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 13.6% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.8% (1276 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.9%, worth PD +2.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Bouchard 21.2%, McDavid 20.0%, Draisaitl 23.1%, Podkolzin 22.5%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Predators | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Predators | 62 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Predators | 80 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:01 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Predators | 82 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 14 | 44 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20:15 | 3 | 1 | 114 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Predators | 82 | 3 | 20 | 23 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:28 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Predators | 81 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 25 | 46 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 23:35 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 80 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 27 | 47 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 23:22 | 3 | 1 | 146 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 68 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -1 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 23:22 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 48 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:52 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 76 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 14 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:29 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 57 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:44 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 21 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 79 | 11 | 34 | 45 | 44 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21:03 | 3 | 0 | 177 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 65 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 11 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 22:12 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 82 | 6 | 35 | 41 | 32 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:36 | 2 | 0 | 131 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 18 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 11 | 28 | 38 | — | 95 | — | 2 | — | 20:19 | — | — | 103 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Mattias Ekholm (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 04:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Ekholm, Dach) → 1-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Dach Ekholm · Bouchard | Couturier · Tippett · Barkey Sanheim · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Nov 9 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 02:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Podkolzin, Ekholm) → 2-0 | McDavid · Podkolzin Ekholm · Bouchard | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider Garand (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 09:14 | EV | Goal | #? (McDavid, Draisaitl) → 1-0 | Draisaitl · McDavid · Podkolzin Bouchard | Boeser · Pettersson · Bains Hronek · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs ANA | |||||
| P2 02:34 | SH | Assist | #? (Draisaitl, #?) → 2-1 | Draisaitl Murphy · Shea | Killorn · Caulfield · Nesterenko · McQueen Luneau Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ NJD | |||||
| P1 08:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins) → 1-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Kapanen · Dach Ekholm | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt Pesce · Kovacevic Hellebuyck (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mattias over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 166 | 10 | |
| Connor McDavid EDM | 133 | 10 | |
| Leon Draisaitl EDM | 127 | 10 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM | 113 | 10 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats