Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals56 × 3+168
- proj assists62 × 1+62
- PP points50 × 0.5+25
- game-winning goals13 × 0.5+6.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots328 × 0.1+32.8
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1840 × 0.01+18.4
- total314 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242314 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 314 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 4.7 SOG/game lately vs 3.2 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +6.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 23.1% shooting on 78 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 19.6% (1785 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (15.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 21.6%, worth PD +6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Oilers | 37 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:42 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 4.1% | 40.6% |
| 2015-16 | Oilers | 72 | 19 | 32 | 51 | -2 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18:04 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 14.3% | 48.4% |
| 2016-17 | Oilers | 82 | 29 | 48 | 77 | 7 | 20 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 18:53 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 16.9% | 49.0% |
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 78 | 25 | 45 | 70 | -7 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 19:19 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 12.9% | 56.1% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 82 | 50 | 55 | 105 | 2 | 52 | 16 | 29 | 3 | 22:35 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 21.6% | 50.5% |
| 2019-20 | Oilers | 71 | 43 | 67 | 110 | -7 | 18 | 16 | 44 | 0 | 22:37 | 10 | 2 | 218 | 19.7% | 52.1% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 56 | 31 | 53 | 84 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 32 | 1 | 22:11 | 8 | 0 | 168 | 18.5% | 55.7% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 80 | 55 | 55 | 110 | 17 | 40 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 22:21 | 11 | 1 | 278 | 19.8% | 53.4% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 80 | 52 | 76 | 128 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 62 | 1 | 21:44 | 11 | 1 | 247 | 21.1% | 54.9% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 81 | 41 | 65 | 106 | 26 | 76 | 21 | 39 | 0 | 20:42 | 7 | 2 | 217 | 18.9% | 56.9% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 71 | 52 | 54 | 106 | 32 | 34 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 21:31 | 11 | 6 | 240 | 21.7% | 54.3% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 65 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 13 | 26 | 16 | 42 | 1 | 21:35 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 18.8% | 56.9% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 18 | 19 | 37 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 21:55 | 3 | 0 | 78 | 23.1% | 58.7% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 56 | 62 | 118 | — | 27 | — | 45 | — | 19:23 | — | — | 247 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Leon Draisaitl (2025-25) · Nathan MacKinnon (2025-25) · Nikita Kucherov (2025-25) · Connor McDavid (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P4 00:47 | EV | Assist | Bouchard (Draisaitl) → 3-2 | Draisaitl · McDavid Bouchard | Cates · Michkov Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Nov 9 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 02:59 | EV | Goal | #? (Podkolzin, Ekholm) → 2-0 | McDavid · Podkolzin Ekholm · Bouchard | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider Garand (G) |
| P3 18:47 | SH | Goal | Draisaitl → 3-1 | Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid Ekholm · Murphy | Zibanejad · Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Fox Garand (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 09:14 | EV | Assist | #? (McDavid, Draisaitl) → 1-0 | Draisaitl · McDavid · Podkolzin Bouchard | Boeser · Pettersson · Bains Hronek · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| P3 04:00 | PP | Goal | #? (McDavid, Bouchard) → 3-1 | Hyman · Kapanen · McDavid Bouchard | Boeser · Pettersson Brisebois · Hronek Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Leon over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid EDM | 204 | 10 | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 182 | 10 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin EDM | 138 | 10 | |
| Mattias Ekholm EDM | 127 | 10 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats