Justin Faulk
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots111 × 0.1+11.1
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1711 × 0.01+17.1
- total95 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16695 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 12.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.6% (1459 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.5%, worth PD +2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Copp 9.7%, Brandsegg-Nygård 8.8%, Finnie 17.5%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Hurricanes | 66 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -16 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 22:51 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Hurricanes | 38 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 24:00 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Hurricanes | 76 | 5 | 27 | 32 | -9 | 37 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 23:25 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Hurricanes | 82 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -19 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 24:26 | 4 | 0 | 238 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Hurricanes | 64 | 16 | 21 | 37 | -22 | 27 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 24:03 | 4 | 0 | 184 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 75 | 17 | 20 | 37 | -18 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 23:08 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 76 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -26 | 48 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 22:16 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 22:25 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 69 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -3 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:34 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 56 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24:16 | 2 | 1 | 117 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blues | 76 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 41 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:12 | 6 | 1 | 167 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blues | 82 | 11 | 39 | 50 | -4 | 34 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 23:23 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blues | 60 | 2 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 21:58 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 78 | 4 | 28 | 32 | -9 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 22:27 | 1 | 0 | 124 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 61 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -3 | 32 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 22:30 | 3 | 0 | 116 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 17 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -1 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20:28 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 10 | 23 | 33 | — | 52 | — | 12 | — | 19:52 | — | — | 107 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brandon Montour (2025-25) · Ryan McDonagh (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Justin Faulk (2025-25) · Damon Severson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 05:29 | PP | Assist | #? (Copp, Faulk) → 2-3 | Copp · Rasmussen · Brandsegg-Nygård Faulk | Cirelli · Mikheyev Hedman · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 01:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Arvidsson, Faulk) → 2-1 | Arvidsson · Finnie Faulk · Wallinder | Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| P3 02:08 | PP | Goal | #? (Copp, Brandsegg-Nygård) → 3-2 | Copp · Compher · Rasmussen · Brandsegg-Nygård | Hathaway · Reinhart Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 00:41 | EV | Assist | #? (Mazur, #?) → 2-1 | Dries · Mazur Chiarot · Seider | Toropchenko · Suter · Kaskimaki Carlo · Broberg Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Justin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Wallinder DET | 103 | 9 | |
| Andrew Copp DET | 80 | 10 | |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård DET | 74 | 10 | |
| Emmitt Finnie DET | 68 | 10 | |
| Lucas Raymond DET | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats