Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 80?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists47 × 1+47
- PP points40 × 0.5+20
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots252 × 0.1+25.2
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1693 × 0.01+16.9
- total193 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242193 = 80/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 193 points is 80 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −4.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.5% shooting on 57 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.4% (846 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.5%, worth PD −4.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | -32 | 16 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 18:09 | 2 | 2 | 184 | 12.5% | 38.7% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 74 | 17 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 24 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17:23 | 4 | 0 | 134 | 12.7% | 29.4% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 82 | 31 | 41 | 72 | -12 | 30 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 17:45 | 4 | 3 | 163 | 19.0% | 40.0% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 82 | 27 | 53 | 80 | -15 | 18 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 18:47 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 14.1% | 12.5% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 80 | 25 | 51 | 76 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 18:48 | 5 | 0 | 173 | 14.5% | 100.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 20:07 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 26 | 47 | 73 | — | 39 | — | 33 | — | 18:14 | — | — | 203 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patrick Kane (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Tim Stützle (2025-25) · Lucas Raymond (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 00:17 | EV | Goal | Raymond (Copp) → 3-1 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Seider · Wallinder | Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ STL | |||||
| P1 19:47 | EV | Assist | Copp (Chiarot, Raymond) → 1-0 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk | Berggren · Neighbours · McTavish Fowler · Carlo Hofer (G) |
| P3 18:46 | EV | Assist | Seider (Raymond, Copp) → 2-3 | Copp · DeBrincat · Raymond · Finnie Seider | Suter · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ TBL | |||||
| P2 10:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Compher) → 1-3 | Compher · Rasmussen Chiarot · Seider | Holmberg · Mikheyev · James Crozier · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P3 02:53 | EV | Assist | Brandsegg-Nygård (Raymond, Copp) → 4-2 | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Englund · Johansson | Hathaway · Imama · Schwindt Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Lucas over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Copp DET | 111 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 108 | 10 | |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård DET | 92 | 10 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson DET | 75 | 10 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats