Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 67?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists42 × 1+42
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM66 × 0.05+3.3
- ice time (min)2178 × 0.01+21.8
- total111 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166111 = 67/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 111 points is 67 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 2.6% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.1% (811 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.1%, worth PD −1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 82 | 7 | 43 | 50 | -9 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 23:02 | 4 | 2 | 187 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 82 | 5 | 37 | 42 | -11 | 40 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 23:09 | 1 | 0 | 140 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 82 | 9 | 33 | 42 | -7 | 51 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 22:22 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 82 | 8 | 38 | 46 | -5 | 40 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 25:04 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 82 | 10 | 50 | 60 | 15 | 57 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 25:40 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -4 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 25:57 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 6 | 42 | 48 | — | 60 | — | 25 | — | 23:16 | — | — | 142 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Seth Jones (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Filip Hronek (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ FLA | |||||
| P1 04:07 | EV | Assist | Compher (Mazur, Seider) → 1-1 | Compher · Arvidsson · Mazur Seider · Wallinder | Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas Schmid (G) |
| P2 12:08 | EV | Assist | Kasper (Wallinder, Seider) → 4-1 | DeBrincat · Kasper · Finnie Seider · Wallinder | Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Jones · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ STL | |||||
| P3 18:46 | EV | Goal | Seider (Raymond, Copp) → 2-3 | Copp · DeBrincat · Raymond · Finnie Seider | Suter · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P1 05:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Seider) → 1-0 | Kolesar · Dries Chiarot · Seider | Hathaway · Imama · Schwindt Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| P3 19:57 | EV | Assist | #? (Seider) → 5-3 | Rasmussen · Dries Englund · Seider | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Moritz over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chiarot DET | 141 | 10 | |
| Lucas Raymond DET | 108 | 10 | |
| Alex DeBrincat DET | 104 | 10 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson DET | 103 | 10 | |
| Emmitt Finnie DET | 95 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats