Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 73?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points53 × 0.5+26.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots145 × 0.1+14.5
- PIM61 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1530 × 0.01+15.3
- total177 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242177 = 73/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 177 points is 73 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 16:49/game over the last 6, down 15% from 19:54 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 3.0 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 11 of 16 for EDM — missed 5 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17, 2026-10-20, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.1% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (1350 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.8%, worth PD +2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Kapanen 17.2%, Dach 10.3%, Murphy 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Oilers | 62 | 18 | 34 | 52 | -2 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 17:36 | 2 | 0 | 134 | 13.4% | 37.5% |
| 2012-13 | Oilers | 40 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 18:52 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 5.1% | 41.0% |
| 2013-14 | Oilers | 80 | 19 | 37 | 56 | -12 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 20:24 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 10.7% | 42.4% |
| 2014-15 | Oilers | 76 | 24 | 32 | 56 | -12 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 20:38 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 12.7% | 45.7% |
| 2015-16 | Oilers | 55 | 12 | 22 | 34 | -9 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 19:04 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 11.1% | 44.8% |
| 2016-17 | Oilers | 82 | 18 | 25 | 43 | -10 | 29 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 17:42 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 9.0% | 43.9% |
| 2017-18 | Oilers | 62 | 24 | 24 | 48 | 10 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 18:05 | 2 | 1 | 151 | 15.9% | 48.8% |
| 2018-19 | Oilers | 82 | 28 | 41 | 69 | -13 | 26 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 20:06 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 13.5% | 45.1% |
| 2019-20 | Oilers | 65 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 1 | 33 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 20:28 | 4 | 0 | 172 | 12.8% | 50.7% |
| 2020-21 | Oilers | 52 | 16 | 19 | 35 | -4 | 22 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 20:46 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 11.9% | 45.6% |
| 2021-22 | Oilers | 63 | 11 | 39 | 50 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 19:19 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 7.1% | 40.7% |
| 2022-23 | Oilers | 82 | 37 | 67 | 104 | 12 | 35 | 15 | 53 | 1 | 19:48 | 3 | 0 | 201 | 18.4% | 45.2% |
| 2023-24 | Oilers | 80 | 18 | 49 | 67 | 10 | 36 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 19:37 | 3 | 0 | 183 | 9.8% | 48.0% |
| 2024-25 | Oilers | 78 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 18:58 | 5 | 1 | 164 | 12.2% | 48.5% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 72 | 20 | 36 | 56 | -9 | 21 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 19:04 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 15.0% | 47.4% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 18:13 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 21.1% | 47.2% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 25 | 39 | 64 | — | 51 | — | 35 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Andrei Svechnikov (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 19:41 | PP | Assist | #? (McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins) → 1-1 | Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid · Dach | Killorn · Washe Helleson · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ NJD | |||||
| P1 08:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins) → 1-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Kapanen · Dach Ekholm | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt Pesce · Kovacevic Hellebuyck (G) |
| P2 18:16 | PP | Goal | #? (Bouchard, Kapanen) → 2-3 | Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid Bouchard | Brown · Glass Pesce · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 08:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Kapanen) → 1-0 | Kapanen · Dach Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom DeAngelo · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| P2 18:26 | PP | Goal | #? (McDavid, Draisaitl) → 3-0 | Draisaitl · Kapanen · McDavid Bouchard | Pageau · Holmstrom Mayfield · Pelech Sorokin (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 7 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 87 | 7 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 54 | 7 | |
| Colton Dach EDM | 50 | 5 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 49 | 7 | |
| Evan Bouchard EDM | 49 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats