Colton Dach
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 46?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points6 × 0.5+3
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots174 × 0.1+17.4
- PIM60 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1216 × 0.01+12.2
- total111 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242111 = 46/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 111 points is 46 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 15:41/game over the last 6, up 15% from 13:40 earlier in the season.
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.8 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Availability: played 11 of 16 for EDM — missed 5 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-09, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.3% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (85 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.2%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 25 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 53 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -15 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:41 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 5.8% | 36.6% |
| 2025-26 | Oilers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 10.3% | 39.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 18 | 18 | 36 | — | 52 | — | 3 | — | 14:48 | — | — | 154 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 04:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Ekholm, Dach) → 1-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Dach Ekholm · Bouchard | Couturier · Tippett · Barkey Sanheim · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ NYR | |||||
| P1 06:19 | EV | Goal | #? (Bouchard) → 2-0 | Nugent-Hopkins · Kapanen Ekholm · Bouchard | Zibanejad · Dorofeyev · Lafrenière Pettersson · Schneider Garand (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 04:18 | PP | Assist | Howard (Kapanen, Dach) → 2-1 | Frederic · Dach · Kapanen · Howard Shea | Rasmussen · Larkin Wallinder · Faulk Postava (G) |
| P3 16:32 | EV | Goal | Dach (Shea, Nugent-Hopkins) → 3-2 | Dach · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Bouchard · Shea | Copp · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Seider · Wallinder Postava (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Colton over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen EDM | 84 | 9 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 71 | 9 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 63 | 9 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM | 50 | 5 | |
| Zach Hyman EDM | 36 | 3 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats