Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots217 × 0.1+21.7
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1721 × 0.01+17.2
- total94 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16694 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.1% shooting on 49 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.5% (1531 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.4%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Bruins | 42 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:08 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Bruins | 64 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 19:06 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Bruins | 72 | 10 | 32 | 42 | -3 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21:20 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Flames | 82 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -14 | 46 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 19:46 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Flames | 81 | 13 | 37 | 50 | 12 | 64 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 19:41 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Flames | 82 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 1 | 64 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 21:32 | 4 | 1 | 270 | 6.3% | 33.3% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 18 | 21 | 39 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:40 | 2 | 0 | 259 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 47 | 14 | 26 | 40 | 30 | 32 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 23:17 | 3 | 2 | 170 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 55 | 10 | 32 | 42 | 20 | 35 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 22:43 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 62 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -19 | 34 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 21:13 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 82 | 22 | 52 | 74 | 23 | 50 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 21:46 | 7 | 2 | 275 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 20 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -8 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 20:59 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 64 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 19:51 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 77 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -2 | 50 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 21:32 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 8 | 28 | 36 | — | 29 | — | 10 | — | 19:56 | — | — | 168 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Sean Durzi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 13:42 | PP | Goal | #? (Hughes, Evangelista) → 4-4 | Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista | Horvat · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs STL | |||||
| P4 01:26 | EV | Assist | Bratt (Hamilton) → 5-4 | Meier · Bratt Hamilton | Thomas · Holloway Barron Binnington (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs EDM | |||||
| P2 14:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Hamilton, Bratt) → 2-1 | Bratt · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Nugent-Hopkins · Kapanen · Dach Murphy · Shea Jarry (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 16:36 | EV | Assist | Hughes (Hamilton, Mantha) → 4-1 | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Hughes | Blackwell · Hyry · Hryckowian Capobianco · Myers DeSmith (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dougie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 143 | 10 | |
| Timo Meier NJD | 72 | 10 | |
| Jack Hughes NJD | 71 | 10 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk NJD | 66 | 10 | |
| Jesper Bratt NJD | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats