Arseny Gritsyuk
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 64?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots199 × 0.1+19.9
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1327 × 0.01+13.3
- total156 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242156 = 64/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 156 points is 64 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.8% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (149 shots before this season) — that's 3.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.0%, worth PD +5.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Hughes 11.8%, Bratt 9.1%, Hamilton 4.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Devils | 66 | 13 | 18 | 31 | -3 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:10 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 8.7% | 30.8% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 20 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:48 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 17.8% | 75.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 30 | 28 | 58 | — | 23 | — | 7 | — | 15:33 | — | — | 171 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WSH | |||||
| P1 02:20 | PP | Assist | #? (Meier, Gritsyuk) → 1-0 | Meier · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton | Tuch · Protas Liljegren · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| P3 19:15 | EV | Assist | #? (Gritsyuk, Bratt) → 5-2 | Bratt · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Hughes | Strome · Kyrou · Dubois · Leonard Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 01:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Gritsyuk, Hughes) → 1-2 | Hughes · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Scheifele · Connor · Björck Samberg · Pionk Daws (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 04:42 | EV | Assist | #? (Bratt, Gritsyuk) → 2-2 | Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk Kovacevic | Palat · Pageau · Duclair Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 30 · @ VGK | |||||
| P1 18:51 | EV | Goal | #? → 2-2 | Bratt · Hughes Pesce · Hughes | Karlsson · Marner · Connelly Hanifin · Lauzon Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Arseny over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes NJD | 127 | 10 | |
| Jesper Bratt NJD | 113 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 66 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 56 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats