Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals28 × 3+84
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots158 × 0.1+15.8
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1235 × 0.01+12.4
- total134 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242134 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 134 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 11 of 15 for CAR — missed 4 games (2026-10-18, 2026-10-20, 2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 26.7% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.3% (573 shots before this season) — that's 3.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.4%, worth PD +6.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Martinook 12.5%, Jarvis 12.5%, Slavin 0.0%, Miller 3.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Flames | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 62.5% |
| 2017-18 | Flames | 72 | 17 | 8 | 25 | -7 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:21 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 14.4% | 48.8% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 79 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:42 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 14.1% | 51.9% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 56 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 13.2% | 44.7% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 45 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 11.4% | 46.8% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 14.3% | 48.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 50 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:26 | 3 | 0 | 57 | 12.3% | 55.7% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 32 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12:40 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 14.6% | 50.3% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 41 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 8.9% | 50.7% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 19 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 38.1% | 50.5% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 68 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:09 | 3 | 0 | 63 | 17.5% | 51.4% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 16 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:42 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 26.7% | 46.8% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 28 | 13 | 41 | — | 25 | — | 5 | — | 14:54 | — | — | 148 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tyson Foerster (2025-25) · Bobby McMann (2025-25) · Artem Anisimov (2019-19) · Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 · vs WPG | |||||
| P3 06:53 | PP | Goal | #? (Stankoven) → 6-0 | Kotkaniemi · Jarvis · Stankoven Valimaki | Iafallo · Barron DeMelo · Ferraro Stevenson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P3 00:16 | EV | Goal | Jankowski (Jarvis, Chatfield) → 3-0 | Jankowski · Martinook · Jarvis Slavin · Chatfield | Coyle · Olivier · Knies Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| Oct 17 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 08:19 | PP | Goal | Jankowski (Stankoven, Nadeau) → 1-1 | Jankowski · Stankoven · Nadeau · Sörum Miller | Barron · Koepke Samberg · Pionk Stevenson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mark over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Martinook CAR | 81 | 10 | |
| Seth Jarvis CAR | 71 | 6 | |
| Jaccob Slavin CAR | 59 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 59 | 10 | |
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats