Shayne Gostisbehere
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 78?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists43 × 1+43
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots160 × 0.1+16
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1493 × 0.01+14.9
- total129 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166129 = 78/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 129 points is 78 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.9% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.4% (1242 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.6%, worth PD +0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Flyers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Flyers | 64 | 17 | 29 | 46 | 8 | 24 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 20:05 | 5 | 4 | 152 | 11.2% | 100.0% |
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 76 | 7 | 32 | 39 | -21 | 32 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 19:36 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 78 | 13 | 52 | 65 | 10 | 25 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 21:27 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 78 | 9 | 28 | 37 | -20 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 19:40 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 42 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 18:18 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 41 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -2 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19:56 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 82 | 14 | 37 | 51 | -23 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 22:11 | 2 | 1 | 151 | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 52 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -6 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 22:30 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 23 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17:00 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 81 | 10 | 46 | 56 | -16 | 16 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 19:05 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 70 | 7 | 38 | 45 | 1 | 52 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 18:31 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 55 | 13 | 37 | 50 | 11 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 19:14 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17:47 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 12 | 43 | 55 | — | 34 | — | 20 | — | 18:16 | — | — | 135 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25) · Cale Makar (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 18:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Gostisbehere, Aho) → 7-0 | Aho · Robinson · Svechnikov Gostisbehere | Nazar · Moore · Frondell Kaiser · Korchinski Soderblom (G) |
| P3 16:18 | EV | Goal | #? (Nikishin, Stankoven) → 8-2 | Ehlers · Jarvis · Stankoven Nikishin | Donato · Nazar · Moore Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ NSH | |||||
| P2 10:28 | EV | Assist | #? (Gostisbehere, Stankoven) → 1-2 | Ehlers · Stankoven Gostisbehere · Valimaki | O'Reilly · Bourque · Schaefer Josi · Wilsby Saros (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 01:55 | EV | Assist | Valimaki (Gostisbehere, Stankoven) → 2-0 | Ehlers · Stankoven · Blake Gostisbehere · Valimaki | Lowry · Iafallo · Barron Fleury · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| P3 08:38 | EV | Assist | #? (Robinson, Gostisbehere) → 7-0 | Robinson · Blake Gostisbehere · Valimaki | Barron · Rosén Ferraro · Bauer · Salomonsson Stevenson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Shayne over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake CAR | 82 | 10 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers CAR | 75 | 10 | |
| Juuso Valimaki CAR | 70 | 6 | |
| Sebastian Aho CAR | 57 | 10 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov CAR | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats