Andrei Svechnikov
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 81?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals32 × 3+96
- proj assists38 × 1+38
- PP points29 × 0.5+14.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots248 × 0.1+24.8
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1471 × 0.01+14.7
- total195 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242195 = 81/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 195 points is 81 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.3% shooting on 59 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (1500 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.7%, worth PD +3.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 20 | 17 | 37 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 14:39 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 10.6% | 14.3% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 68 | 24 | 37 | 61 | 9 | 54 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 16:44 | 5 | 1 | 183 | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 55 | 15 | 27 | 42 | 1 | 44 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 17:32 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 10.2% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 78 | 30 | 39 | 69 | 19 | 79 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 17:16 | 5 | 1 | 249 | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 64 | 23 | 32 | 55 | 6 | 71 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 18:03 | 4 | 0 | 205 | 11.2% | 44.4% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 59 | 19 | 33 | 52 | 13 | 58 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 16:59 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 13.2% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 72 | 20 | 28 | 48 | -8 | 59 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 17:07 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 11.1% | 25.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 79 | 31 | 39 | 70 | 1 | 66 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 16:59 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 15.3% | 45.5% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17:31 | 2 | 0 | 59 | 15.3% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 32 | 38 | 70 | — | 47 | — | 30 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 199 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Brayden Point (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ SEA | |||||
| P3 11:41 | EV | Assist | #? (Miller, Svechnikov) → 4-0 | Martinook · Svechnikov Walker · Miller | Eberle · McMann · Beniers Mahura · Ottavainen Grubauer (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 04:43 | EV | Goal | #? (Carrier) → 5-0 | Carrier · Aho Walker · Miller | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Vlasic · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| P3 19:47 | EV | Goal | #? (Aho) → 9-2 | Martinook · Aho Walker · Miller | Donato · Smith · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYI | |||||
| P2 06:44 | EV | Goal | #? (Aho, Carrier) → 3-2 | Carrier · Aho Walker · Miller | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
| P3 14:52 | EV | Assist | #? (Svechnikov, Aho) → 4-3 | Aho · Svechnikov Walker · Miller | Palat · Pageau · Duclair Stanley · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Andrei over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho CAR | 166 | 10 | |
| William Carrier CAR | 109 | 10 | |
| Jaccob Slavin CAR | 70 | 10 | |
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 67 | 10 | |
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 60 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats