Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots104 × 0.1+10.4
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1131 × 0.01+11.3
- total115 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242115 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 season baseline.
- Did not play the last 3 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 14 of 17 for NJD — missed 3 games (2026-11-08, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 23.8% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.2% (954 shots before this season) — that's 2.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.7%, worth PD +2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Rodrigues 11.1%, Hughes 14.0%, Hamilton 4.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Red Wings | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:42 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Red Wings | 60 | 17 | 19 | 36 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:54 | 3 | 2 | 133 | 12.8% | 45.5% |
| 2017-18 | Red Wings | 80 | 24 | 24 | 48 | -1 | 52 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 17:18 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 12.6% | 32.7% |
| 2018-19 | Red Wings | 67 | 25 | 23 | 48 | -8 | 30 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 12.6% | 44.0% |
| 2019-20 | Red Wings | 43 | 16 | 22 | 38 | -7 | 34 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 18:54 | 3 | 0 | 137 | 11.7% | 42.1% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -14 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:15 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 11.0% | 48.4% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:45 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 30.0% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 37 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 11.0% | 75.0% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 67 | 11 | 16 | 27 | -8 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:13 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 9.2% | 52.9% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 56 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14:09 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 18 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 13.0% | 25.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13:54 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 26.7% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 81 | 33 | 31 | 64 | 10 | 43 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 15:11 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 21.7% | 30.4% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 23.8% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 22 | 25 | 46 | — | 44 | — | 8 | — | 14:11 | — | — | 121 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25) · Cutter Gauthier (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 15:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Mantha) → 1-1 | Mantha · Boqvist Kovacevic · Chisholm | Pageau · Duclair · Holmstrom Hutton · Kessel Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 12:02 | EV | Goal | #? (Hughes, Bratt) → 2-0 | Bratt · Hughes Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter Carlo · Broberg Binnington (G) |
| P2 18:00 | EV | Assist | Boqvist (Hughes, Mantha) → 3-1 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Pesce · Hughes | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron Binnington (G) |
| P2 18:19 | EV | Goal | #? (Rodrigues, Pesce) → 4-1 | Rodrigues · Boqvist Pesce · Hughes | McMichael · McTavish · Kaskimaki Broberg · Jiricek Binnington (G) |
| Oct 30 · @ VGK | |||||
| P1 05:38 | EV | Assist | #? (Mantha) → 1-0 | Brown · Mantha · Glass Pesce | Hertl · Howden · Bowman Andersson · Heinola Hill (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anthony over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues NJD | 85 | 10 | |
| Declan Chisholm NJD | 46 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 42 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 41 | 10 | |
| Brett Pesce NJD | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats