Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals26 × 3+78
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots221 × 0.1+22.1
- PIM75 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1480 × 0.01+14.8
- total139 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242139 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 139 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (1392 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.2%, worth PD +3.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Flames | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| 2015-16 | Flames | 77 | 18 | 18 | 36 | -11 | 37 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 15:09 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 13.2% | 46.1% |
| 2016-17 | Flames | 81 | 13 | 13 | 26 | -16 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14:59 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 10.7% | 46.1% |
| 2017-18 | Flames | 82 | 11 | 15 | 26 | -18 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:24 | 1 | 0 | 157 | 7.0% | 54.3% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 71 | 13 | 14 | 27 | -6 | 93 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13:17 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 11.3% | 55.6% |
| 2019-20 | Flames | 52 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -1 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 9.8% | 51.7% |
| 2020-21 | Flames | 38 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 6.0% | 48.6% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 10 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:04 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 15.4% | 46.2% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 71 | 28 | 21 | 49 | 27 | 74 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 16:57 | 7 | 1 | 241 | 11.6% | 46.9% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 63 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 5 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 17:24 | 3 | 0 | 193 | 8.3% | 47.0% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 69 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 17 | 100 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 16:37 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 11.7% | 45.5% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 76 | 25 | 26 | 51 | -15 | 90 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 17:27 | 4 | 1 | 241 | 10.4% | 46.2% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 76 | 26 | 32 | 58 | -10 | 82 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 18:30 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 12.9% | 47.6% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 13.7% | 45.8% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 26 | 18 | 44 | — | 62 | — | 10 | — | 16:41 | — | — | 184 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jack Roslovic (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Artturi Lehkonen (2025-25) · Timo Meier (2025-25) · Corey Perry (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 02:00 | PP | Goal | #? (Lundell, #?) → 1-0 | Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Lundell Ekblad | Monahan · Nichushkin Gudbranson · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| P3 14:29 | EV | Goal | #? (Ekblad, Tkachuk) → 3-1 | Tkachuk Ekblad · Forsling | Coyle · Sillinger Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 19:13 | EV | Goal | #? (Tkachuk, Reinhart) → 3-4 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones | Jenner · Tuch · Beauvillier Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 16:40 | EV | Goal | #? (Tkachuk, Tkachuk) → 3-4 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones | Compher · Rasmussen · Leonard Faulk · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA | 126 | 10 | |
| Brady Tkachuk FLA | 112 | 10 | |
| Seth Jones FLA | 63 | 10 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 62 | 10 | |
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats