Brady Tkachuk
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 98?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points53 × 0.5+26.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots301 × 0.1+30.1
- PIM248 × 0.05+12.4
- ice time (min)1405 × 0.01+14.1
- total237 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242237 = 98/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 237 points is 98 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +7.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 14.7% shooting on 68 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.8% (1845 shots before this season) — that's 3.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.4%, worth PD +7.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Tkachuk 9.8%, Bennett 14.0%, Jones 6.7%, Reinhart 16.7%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Senators | 71 | 22 | 23 | 45 | -10 | 75 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:01 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 10.3% | 49.0% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 71 | 21 | 23 | 44 | -14 | 106 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 18:56 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 8.1% | 46.2% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 56 | 17 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 69 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 18:14 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 7.7% | 47.4% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 79 | 30 | 37 | 67 | -7 | 117 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 18:48 | 3 | 1 | 288 | 10.4% | 50.1% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 82 | 35 | 48 | 83 | -10 | 126 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18:38 | 6 | 2 | 347 | 10.1% | 48.4% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 81 | 37 | 37 | 74 | 1 | 134 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 19:09 | 2 | 1 | 357 | 10.4% | 52.6% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 72 | 29 | 26 | 55 | 0 | 123 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 18:14 | 5 | 4 | 296 | 9.8% | 51.3% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 60 | 22 | 37 | 59 | 4 | 71 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 16:58 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 10.0% | 57.6% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -3 | 56 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 16:41 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 13.9% | 54.3% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 37 | 40 | 76 | — | 164 | — | 33 | — | 16:08 | — | — | 224 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: William Nylander (2025-25) · Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 17:20 | EV | Assist | #? (Tkachuk, Tkachuk) → 5-4 | Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones · Mikkola | Compher · Arvidsson · Mazur Chiarot · Faulk Gibson (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 18:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Tkachuk, Tkachuk) → 1-3 | Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones | Zacha · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen Swayman (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ WSH | |||||
| P1 03:13 | EV | Goal | Tkachuk (Tkachuk) → 1-1 | Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Ekblad · Forsling | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Ivany · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| P1 10:00 | PP | Goal | #? (Tkachuk, Jones) → 2-1 | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk Jones | Jenner · Tuch Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 12:29 | PP | Assist | #? (Tkachuk, Tkachuk) → 2-0 | Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk Jones | Smith · Nazar Cole · Vlasic Knight (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brady over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk FLA | 142 | 10 | |
| Sam Bennett FLA | 112 | 10 | |
| Seth Jones FLA | 85 | 10 | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA | 46 | 10 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats