Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 65?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points20 × 0.5+10
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots178 × 0.1+17.8
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1573 × 0.01+15.7
- total158 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242158 = 65/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 158 points is 65 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for TBL — missed 2 games (2026-11-11, 2026-11-12).
- Injury report (2026-11-11): listed — Brayden Point was placed on injured reserve by the Lightning on Tuesday. The forward left in the first period of a 4-3 loss to the Winnipeg …
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.9% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 18.3% (1636 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.6%, worth PD −2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 68 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 17:08 | 2 | 0 | 122 | 14.8% | 44.7% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 82 | 32 | 34 | 66 | 18 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 19:37 | 12 | 4 | 217 | 14.8% | 47.4% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 79 | 41 | 51 | 92 | 27 | 28 | 20 | 35 | 0 | 18:55 | 7 | 2 | 191 | 21.5% | 50.8% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 66 | 25 | 39 | 64 | 28 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 18:54 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 17.7% | 51.1% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 56 | 23 | 25 | 48 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 18:26 | 6 | 1 | 131 | 17.6% | 49.4% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 66 | 28 | 30 | 58 | -5 | 33 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 19:28 | 4 | 2 | 176 | 15.9% | 51.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 82 | 51 | 44 | 95 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 0 | 19:40 | 9 | 1 | 235 | 21.7% | 50.7% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 81 | 46 | 44 | 90 | -16 | 14 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 20:02 | 12 | 0 | 227 | 20.3% | 45.7% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 77 | 42 | 40 | 82 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 0 | 19:29 | 7 | 2 | 189 | 22.2% | 48.5% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 63 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 18:15 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 14.0% | 45.8% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 17 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18:44 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 13.9% | 51.5% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 23 | 44 | 67 | — | 30 | — | 14 | — | 17:16 | — | — | 162 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Brayden Point (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ MIN | |||||
| P3 13:44 | EV | Assist | #? (Point, D'Astous) → 2-3 | Kucherov · Point Carlson · D'Astous | Coleman · Hartman · Brink Brodin · Hughes Pickard (G) |
| P3 16:29 | PP | Assist | #? (Carlson, Point) → 3-3 | Kucherov · Girgensons · Guentzel · Point Carlson | Sturm · Boldy Brodin · Maatta Pickard (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 02:38 | EV | Assist | #? (Guentzel, Point) → 3-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Point Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Mastro · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 07:54 | PP | Goal | #? (Kucherov, D'Astous) → 1-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel · Hagel D'Astous | Copp · Finnie Chiarot · Faulk Gibson (G) |
| P1 13:01 | EV | Goal | #? (Kucherov, Cernak) → 2-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel McDonagh · Cernak | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brayden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel TBL | 148 | 10 | |
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 135 | 10 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 97 | 10 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous TBL | 85 | 9 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats