Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 77?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM59 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1485 × 0.01+14.9
- total127 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166127 = 77/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 127 points is 77 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for TBL — missed 1 game (2026-10-15).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 12.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.8% (80 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.4%, worth PD +1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Carlson 14.6%, Guentzel 20.8%, Kucherov 14.3%, Point 13.9%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 70 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -4 | 112 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:45 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 18 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 17:39 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 13 | 40 | 53 | — | 56 | — | 14 | — | 18:15 | — | — | 113 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 02:57 | EV | Assist | #? (D'Astous, Kucherov) → 1-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel Carlson · D'Astous | Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 19:38 | PP | Assist | #? (Guentzel, D'Astous) → 2-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel · O'Reilly D'Astous | Malenstyn · Kozak Timmins · Samuelsson Luukkonen (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ MIN | |||||
| P3 13:44 | EV | Assist | #? (Point, D'Astous) → 2-3 | Kucherov · Point Carlson · D'Astous | Coleman · Hartman · Brink Brodin · Hughes Pickard (G) |
| P2 16:34 | PP | Assist | #? (D'Astous, Kucherov) → 1-2 | Kucherov · Point · Hagel D'Astous | Ek · Boldy Bogosian · Brodin Pickard (G) |
| P3 16:29 | PP | Goal | #? (Carlson, Point) → 3-3 | Kucherov · Girgensons · Guentzel · Point Carlson | Sturm · Boldy Brodin · Maatta Pickard (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Charle-Edouard over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson TBL | 122 | 10 | |
| Jake Guentzel TBL | 119 | 10 | |
| Nikita Kucherov TBL | 116 | 10 | |
| Brayden Point TBL | 83 | 8 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats