Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 71?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points15 × 0.5+7.5
- game-winning goals10 × 0.5+5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots158 × 0.1+15.8
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1399 × 0.01+14
- total173 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242173 = 71/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 173 points is 71 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 21.9% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.9% (1176 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.0%, worth PD +3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Stars | 58 | 9 | 13 | 22 | -11 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14:03 | 3 | 1 | 99 | 9.1% | 54.3% |
| 2019-20 | Stars | 60 | 19 | 14 | 33 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 14:45 | 5 | 1 | 120 | 15.8% | 49.9% |
| 2020-21 | Stars | 41 | 15 | 28 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 18:14 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 16.3% | 49.3% |
| 2021-22 | Stars | 80 | 37 | 35 | 72 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 18:03 | 7 | 1 | 213 | 17.4% | 53.0% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 73 | 37 | 38 | 75 | 31 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 3 | 17:33 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 20.1% | 52.0% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 80 | 30 | 35 | 65 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 17:14 | 6 | 2 | 182 | 16.5% | 56.2% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 76 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 18 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 16:53 | 7 | 0 | 160 | 17.5% | 53.9% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 53 | 15 | 29 | 44 | 16 | 18 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17:20 | 1 | 1 | 126 | 11.9% | 59.1% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:28 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 22.9% | 58.1% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 30 | 37 | 67 | — | 44 | — | 18 | — | 16:03 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Brayden Point (2025-25) · Brandon Hagel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 04:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Hintz, Harley) → 1-0 | Hintz · Robertson Lindell · Harley | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi DeMelo · Morrissey Skinner (G) |
| P1 18:32 | EV | Goal | #? (Robertson, Lundkvist) → 2-0 | Seguin · Robertson Lundkvist · Harley | Barron · Koepke · Rosén Ferraro · Samberg Skinner (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 09:16 | PP | Goal | #? (Johnston, Harley) → 1-1 | Robertson · Johnston Harley | Goodrow Nurse · Kesselring Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P1 15:17 | EV | Assist | #? (Hintz) → 2-1 | Seguin · Hintz Lindell · Bichsel | Smith · Celebrini · Misa Nurse · Kesselring Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 01:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Lindell, Robertson) → 6-3 | Robertson · Hyry Myers · Lindell | Dubois · Protas · Leonard Fehervary · Hutson Lindgren (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Roope over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson DAL | 137 | 10 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 78 | 10 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 67 | 7 | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 65 | 10 | |
| Tyler Seguin DAL | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats