Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 91?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points30 × 0.5+15
- game-winning goals10 × 0.5+5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots272 × 0.1+27.2
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1647 × 0.01+16.5
- total220 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242220 = 91/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 220 points is 91 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.4% shooting on 55 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.0% (1400 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Stars | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Stars | 51 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16:53 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 13.4% | 71.4% |
| 2021-22 | Stars | 74 | 41 | 38 | 79 | 16 | 22 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 18:07 | 11 | 2 | 220 | 18.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 82 | 46 | 63 | 109 | 37 | 20 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 18:50 | 7 | 1 | 313 | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 82 | 29 | 51 | 80 | 19 | 22 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 18:19 | 4 | 0 | 231 | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 82 | 35 | 45 | 80 | 10 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 17:48 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 16.6% | 36.8% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 82 | 45 | 51 | 96 | 22 | 32 | 15 | 41 | 0 | 20:15 | 9 | 1 | 294 | 15.3% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 19:27 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 37 | 44 | 81 | — | 30 | — | 37 | — | 17:47 | — | — | 209 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 18:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Robertson, Lundkvist) → 2-0 | Seguin · Robertson Lundkvist · Harley | Barron · Koepke · Rosén Ferraro · Samberg Skinner (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 16:51 | PP | Goal | #? (Rantanen, Harley) → 3-1 | Rantanen · Hintz · Johnston Harley | Goodrow · Dellandrea Trouba · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 01:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Lindell, Robertson) → 6-3 | Robertson · Hyry Myers · Lindell | Dubois · Protas · Leonard Fehervary · Hutson Lindgren (G) |
| P2 00:23 | PP | Goal | #? (Johnston, Hintz) → 2-0 | Rantanen · Hintz · Johnston Heiskanen | Jenner · Tuch Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| P2 03:18 | EV | Goal | #? (Hyry, #?) → 3-0 | Hintz · Hyry Lindell · Harley | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Roy · Chychrun Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jason over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz DAL | 137 | 10 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 92 | 10 | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 78 | 10 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 76 | 7 | |
| Tyler Seguin DAL | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats