Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 32?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots67 × 0.1+6.7
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1102 × 0.01+11
- total78 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24278 = 32/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 78 points is 32 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.8% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (570 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.9%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 70 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 13.7% | 29.4% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 37 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 11.4% | 28.6% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 56 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:56 | 2 | 0 | 59 | 20.3% | 38.4% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 58 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 11.9% | 40.9% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 11 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 21.1% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 56 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14:01 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 4.5% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 72 | 11 | 24 | 35 | -4 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:28 | 3 | 0 | 124 | 8.9% | 33.3% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 60 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:54 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 5.8% | 51.6% |
| 2025-26 | Blues | 39 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:41 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6.9% | 26.7% |
| 2025-26 | Kings | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 18.8% | 46.2% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 12 | 19 | 31 | — | 32 | — | 0 | — | 13:54 | — | — | 101 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Max Jones (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 00:49 | EV | Assist | #? (Emberson, Joseph) → 2-1 | Joseph · Formenton Emberson · Mukhamadullin | DeBrusk · Cotter · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Buium Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 17:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Joseph, Ekholm) → 4-0 | Joseph · Formenton Ekholm · Murphy | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom DeAngelo · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs CGY | |||||
| P1 07:46 | EV | Goal | Joseph (McDavid, Bouchard) → 1-0 | Joseph · Podkolzin · McDavid Bouchard · Shea | Frost · Sharangovich · Klapka Middleton · Nemec Cooley (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mathieu over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Formenton EDM | 86 | 10 | |
| Jason Dickinson EDM | 53 | 7 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 49 | 10 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin EDM | 49 | 8 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats