Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 29?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots88 × 0.1+8.8
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1084 × 0.01+10.8
- total69 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24269 = 29/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 69 points is 29 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 11:06/game over the last 6, down 15% from 13:04 earlier in the season.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for EDM.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.5% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.2% (205 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Senators | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3% | 33.3% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:00 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 14.8% | 20.0% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 79 | 18 | 14 | 32 | -13 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15:27 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 11.1% | 40.0% |
| 2026-27 | Oilers | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Oilers | 84 | 11 | 16 | 27 | — | 22 | — | 0 | — | 13:45 | — | — | 111 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · vs CGY | |||||
| P3 01:16 | EV | Goal | Formenton (Dickinson) → 4-0 | Dickinson · Joseph · Formenton Emberson · Mukhamadullin | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Whitecloud · Middleton Wolf (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Joseph EDM | 86 | 10 | |
| Jason Dickinson EDM | 56 | 7 | |
| Connor Murphy EDM | 55 | 10 | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | 48 | 10 | |
| Owen Michaels EDM | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats