Pierre-Luc Dubois
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 59?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists41 × 1+41
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots137 × 0.1+13.7
- PIM61 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1406 × 0.01+14.1
- total142 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242142 = 59/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 142 points is 59 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 8 of 13 for WSH — missed 5 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-14, 2026-10-17, 2026-10-20, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (1176 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.7%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 20 | 28 | 48 | 8 | 49 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 16:38 | 4 | 1 | 165 | 12.1% | 43.8% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 27 | 34 | 61 | 16 | 64 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17:43 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 15.5% | 43.5% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 70 | 18 | 31 | 49 | -2 | 49 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 17:56 | 4 | 2 | 158 | 11.4% | 44.6% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14.3% | 54.1% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 41 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -6 | 36 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15:06 | 2 | 2 | 69 | 11.6% | 41.4% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 81 | 28 | 32 | 60 | -6 | 106 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 18:55 | 6 | 1 | 233 | 12.0% | 46.9% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 73 | 27 | 36 | 63 | 5 | 77 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 18:27 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 13.2% | 48.9% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 82 | 16 | 24 | 40 | -9 | 70 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 15:42 | 4 | 0 | 146 | 11.0% | 49.7% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 82 | 20 | 46 | 66 | 27 | 76 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17:18 | 4 | 1 | 142 | 14.1% | 49.7% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 29 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -4 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:49 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 11.9% | 47.3% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 12 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 20.0% | 40.9% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 22 | 41 | 63 | — | 51 | — | 4 | — | 15:56 | — | — | 141 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ NJD | |||||
| P2 02:11 | EV | Goal | #? (Protas, Ivany) → 2-1 | Tuch · Protas Ivany · Hutson | Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk Siegenthaler · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 12:31 | EV | Goal | #? (Hutson, Wilson) → 2-2 | Wilson · Leonard Chychrun · Hutson | Giroux · Pinto · Greig Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs FLA | |||||
| P2 14:55 | EV | Assist | #? (Dubois, Leonard) → 3-2 | Dubois · Leonard Ivany · Hutson | Reinhart · Bennett · Imama Jones · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| P3 04:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Protas) → 4-2 | Protas · Leonard Roy · Chychrun | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Schwindt Kulikov · Balinskis Schmid (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 16:13 | EV | Assist | Hutson (Ivany, Dubois) → 1-1 | Wilson · Dubois · Protas Ivany · Hutson | Marchessault · Kerfoot · Colton Hague · Struble Saros (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Pierre-Luc over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson WSH | 99 | 10 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 82 | 10 | |
| Alex Tuch WSH | 81 | 10 | |
| Aliaksei Protas WSH | 74 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats