Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 63?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists52 × 1+52
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots105 × 0.1+10.5
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1726 × 0.01+17.3
- total152 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242152 = 63/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 152 points is 63 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.6% (1266 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +0.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Canucks | 71 | 28 | 38 | 66 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 18:14 | 7 | 1 | 144 | 19.4% | 41.0% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 68 | 27 | 39 | 66 | 16 | 18 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 18:32 | 5 | 1 | 162 | 16.7% | 41.8% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 26 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 18:34 | 1 | 0 | 63 | 15.9% | 45.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 80 | 32 | 36 | 68 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 18:36 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 16.7% | 44.1% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 80 | 39 | 63 | 102 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 20:33 | 6 | 3 | 257 | 15.2% | 44.3% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 82 | 34 | 55 | 89 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 19:39 | 10 | 2 | 207 | 16.4% | 50.8% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 64 | 15 | 30 | 45 | -10 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 18:40 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 13.8% | 47.5% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 74 | 15 | 36 | 51 | -30 | 20 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 18:58 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 11.4% | 47.5% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 20:33 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 16.0% | 47.9% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 18 | 52 | 70 | — | 27 | — | 27 | — | 18:32 | — | — | 126 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · Dylan Strome (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 12:44 | PP | Assist | #? (Boeser, Pettersson) → 1-2 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson Hronek | Dvorak · Cates Sanheim · York Woll (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 17:25 | EV | Assist | #? (Hronek, Pettersson) → 2-3 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Hronek | Hyman · Draisaitl · McDavid Murphy · Shea Levi (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P3 05:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Pettersson, Boeser) → 3-5 | Boeser · Pettersson · Lekkerimaki Hronek | Granlund · Carlsson Mintyukov · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P3 09:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Oleksiak, Pettersson) → 4-5 | Boeser · Pettersson Oleksiak · Buium | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 13:21 | EV | Assist | O'Connor (Pettersson) → 1-0 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · O'Connor Oleksiak · Willander | Marchment · Smith · Misa Orlov · Allan Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Elias over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk VAN | 140 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 137 | 10 | |
| Brock Boeser VAN | 131 | 10 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimaki VAN | 84 | 10 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats