Jonathan Lekkerimäki
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 64?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1288 × 0.01+12.9
- total156 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242156 = 64/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 156 points is 64 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.4% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (40 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.6%, worth PD +3.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (DeBrusk 12.2%, Hronek 4.5%, Pettersson 16.0%, Boeser 21.2%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 24 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:20 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 27 | 33 | 60 | — | 37 | — | 10 | — | 15:17 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 12:44 | PP | Goal | #? (Boeser, Pettersson) → 1-2 | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson Hronek | Dvorak · Cates Sanheim · York Woll (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ WPG | |||||
| P1 06:51 | EV | Assist | #? (Rossi, Lekkerimaki) → 1-2 | Rossi · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Buium | Barron · Koepke · Rosén Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 10:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Hronek, Lekkerimaki) → 1-1 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Lekkerimaki Hronek | Sissons · Blueger Tanev · McCabe Stolarz (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 17:14 | EV | Goal | Lekkerimäki → 4-5 | Boeser · Pettersson · DeBrusk · Chytil · Lekkerimäki Hronek | Colangelo · Greer · Granlund LaCombe · Warren Dostal (G) |
| P3 18:03 | EV | Goal | Lekkerimäki (Pettersson, Hronek) → 5-5 | Boeser · Pettersson · DeBrusk · Chytil · Lekkerimäki Hronek | Killorn · Sennecke · Granlund LaCombe · Helleson Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jonathan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk VAN | 87 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 87 | 10 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 84 | 10 | |
| Brock Boeser VAN | 51 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats