Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists64 × 1+64
- PP points33 × 0.5+16.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots219 × 0.1+21.9
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1923 × 0.01+19.2
- total176 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166176 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 176 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for COL — missed 1 game (2026-10-13).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.6% shooting on 47 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.9% (1317 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.2%, worth PD +0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 57 | 12 | 38 | 50 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 21:01 | 4 | 0 | 121 | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 44 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 24:19 | 3 | 0 | 104 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 77 | 28 | 58 | 86 | 48 | 26 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 25:40 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 60 | 17 | 49 | 66 | 16 | 30 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 26:23 | 6 | 2 | 176 | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 77 | 21 | 69 | 90 | 15 | 16 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 24:46 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 80 | 30 | 62 | 92 | 28 | 14 | 12 | 35 | 2 | 25:43 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 75 | 20 | 59 | 79 | 32 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 24:51 | 4 | 0 | 199 | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 19 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22:25 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 18 | 64 | 82 | — | 24 | — | 31 | — | 21:22 | — | — | 168 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Cale Makar (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25) · Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 17:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Roy, Makar) → 2-1 | Kadri · Roy Toews · Makar | Tavares · Nylander · Tverberg Mermis · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 17:15 | EV | Assist | Lehkonen (Makar, Toews) → 5-3 | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar | Paul · Nylander · Tverberg Ekman-Larsson · Tanev Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 09:46 | PP | Assist | #? (Hughes, Makar) → 1-0 | MacKinnon · Kelly · Hughes Makar | Compher · Rasmussen Englund · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
| P2 12:30 | PP | Assist | #? (Makar, Necas) → 2-0 | Kadri · Necas · Hughes Makar | Rasmussen · Dries Faulk · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
| P3 09:45 | PP | Goal | #? (MacKinnon, Necas) → 4-0 | Kadri · MacKinnon · Necas · Hughes | Compher · Dries Faulk · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Cale over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | 134 | 10 | |
| Martin Necas COL | 113 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 100 | 10 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen COL | 92 | 10 | |
| Nazem Kadri COL | 82 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats