Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 62?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists35 × 1+35
- PP points27 × 0.5+13.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots225 × 0.1+22.5
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1548 × 0.01+15.5
- total150 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242150 = 62/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 150 points is 62 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 16:52/game over the last 6, down 15% from 19:51 earlier in the season.
- Shooting more: 3.5 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.8% shooting on 51 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.8% (1981 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.3%, worth PD −1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Maple Leafs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| 2010-11 | Maple Leafs | 29 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:47 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 5.9% | 40.5% |
| 2011-12 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 17.9% | 26.7% |
| 2012-13 | Maple Leafs | 48 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 15 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 16:03 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 16.8% | 44.3% |
| 2013-14 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 20 | 30 | 50 | -11 | 67 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 17:23 | 2 | 1 | 148 | 13.5% | 45.3% |
| 2014-15 | Maple Leafs | 73 | 18 | 21 | 39 | -7 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 17:36 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 10.2% | 46.2% |
| 2015-16 | Maple Leafs | 76 | 17 | 28 | 45 | -15 | 73 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 18:16 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 6.5% | 49.2% |
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 32 | 29 | 61 | -7 | 95 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 16:35 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 13.6% | 48.0% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 32 | 23 | 55 | 2 | 42 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 16:46 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 15.2% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 73 | 16 | 28 | 44 | -2 | 43 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16:11 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 8.7% | 55.2% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 51 | 19 | 17 | 36 | 7 | 97 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17:26 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 14.3% | 56.8% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 56 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -7 | 34 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 16:28 | 3 | 0 | 170 | 6.5% | 52.8% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 71 | 28 | 59 | 87 | 13 | 71 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 19:14 | 6 | 0 | 247 | 11.3% | 49.7% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 82 | 24 | 32 | 56 | -19 | 56 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 17:13 | 4 | 0 | 267 | 9.0% | 47.5% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 82 | 29 | 46 | 75 | 0 | 43 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 18:26 | 4 | 2 | 277 | 10.5% | 48.9% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 82 | 35 | 32 | 67 | -17 | 72 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 19:21 | 5 | 2 | 279 | 12.5% | 46.2% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 61 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -27 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 19:22 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 6.9% | 47.7% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 16 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17:48 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 39.6% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 18:34 | 1 | 0 | 56 | 8.9% | 47.7% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 20 | 35 | 55 | — | 33 | — | 21 | — | 17:10 | — | — | 187 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ OTT | |||||
| P2 18:04 | PP | Assist | #? (Kadri, Hughes) → 1-2 | Kadri · Necas · Hughes Malinski | Amadio · Stützle Kleven · Matinpalo Ullmark (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 05:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Kadri, Malinski) → 4-3 | Kadri · Roy Toews · Malinski | Tavares · Nylander · Tverberg McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 16:35 | PP | Goal | #? (MacKinnon, Makar) → 2-6 | Landeskog · MacKinnon · Hughes Makar | Monahan Werenski · Provorov Talbot (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 15:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Landeskog, Burns) → 1-2 | Landeskog · Roy Burns · Malinski | Teravainen · Smith · Greene Mastro · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| P2 13:38 | PP | Goal | #? (Makar, MacKinnon) → 3-2 | Schwartz · MacKinnon · Hughes Makar | Teravainen · Frondell Cole · Vlasic Knight (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nazem over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog COL | 90 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 82 | 10 | |
| T.J. Hughes COL | 63 | 10 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | 59 | 10 | |
| Brett Kulak COL | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats