Gabriel Landeskog
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots119 × 0.1+11.9
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1251 × 0.01+12.5
- total133 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242133 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 133 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.2 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 25.9% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.9% (1158 shots before this season) — that's 3.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.3%, worth PD +4.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Kadri 9.8%, Nelson 15.6%, Kulak 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Avalanche | 82 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 20 | 51 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 18:37 | 5 | 1 | 270 | 8.2% | 22.2% |
| 2012-13 | Avalanche | 36 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -4 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 19:20 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| 2013-14 | Avalanche | 81 | 26 | 39 | 65 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 18:41 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 11.7% | 72.2% |
| 2014-15 | Avalanche | 82 | 23 | 36 | 59 | -2 | 79 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 18:30 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 10.8% | 35.6% |
| 2015-16 | Avalanche | 75 | 20 | 33 | 53 | -5 | 69 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 18:56 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 11.8% | 55.4% |
| 2016-17 | Avalanche | 72 | 18 | 15 | 33 | -25 | 62 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 18:47 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 10.7% | 49.6% |
| 2017-18 | Avalanche | 78 | 25 | 37 | 62 | 16 | 37 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 20:09 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 13.7% | 51.4% |
| 2018-19 | Avalanche | 73 | 34 | 41 | 75 | 17 | 51 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 21:09 | 9 | 0 | 243 | 14.0% | 52.0% |
| 2019-20 | Avalanche | 54 | 21 | 23 | 44 | -2 | 47 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 20:02 | 4 | 0 | 145 | 14.5% | 56.4% |
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 54 | 20 | 32 | 52 | 14 | 34 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 19:57 | 8 | 2 | 155 | 12.9% | 56.6% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 51 | 30 | 29 | 59 | 27 | 78 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 20:19 | 5 | 1 | 150 | 20.0% | 54.9% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 60 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 29 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16:25 | 2 | 0 | 132 | 10.6% | 62.3% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -4 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:53 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 25.8% | 46.7% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 25 | 23 | 47 | — | 41 | — | 6 | — | 15:00 | — | — | 130 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Josh Doan (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Logan Cooley (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 10:03 | PP | Goal | #? (Nelson, Toews) → 3-2 | Nelson · Schwartz · Roy Toews | Pinto · Greig Kleven · Matinpalo Ullmark (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 17:26 | EV | Goal | #? (Roy, Makar) → 2-1 | Kadri · Roy Toews · Makar | Tavares · Nylander · Tverberg Mermis · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 05:02 | EV | Goal | #? (Kadri, Malinski) → 4-3 | Kadri · Roy Toews · Malinski | Tavares · Nylander · Tverberg McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 15:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Landeskog, Burns) → 1-2 | Landeskog · Roy Burns · Malinski | Teravainen · Smith · Greene Mastro · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CGY | |||||
| P2 09:07 | EV | Assist | #? (Landeskog, Makar) → 4-0 | Landeskog · Necas Juulsen · Makar | Klapka · Castagna · Tsyplakov Middleton · Whitecloud Sergeev (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Gabriel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri COL | 90 | 10 | |
| Brock Nelson COL | 61 | 10 | |
| Nicolas Roy COL | 59 | 7 | |
| Brett Kulak COL | 55 | 10 | |
| Sam Malinski COL | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats