Brock Nelson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots141 × 0.1+14.1
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1459 × 0.01+14.6
- total122 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242122 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 122 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.6% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.3% (1637 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.4%, worth PD +0.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Islanders | 72 | 14 | 12 | 26 | -10 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14:16 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 10.6% | 42.4% |
| 2014-15 | Islanders | 82 | 20 | 22 | 42 | 6 | 24 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 15:53 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 10.5% | 44.3% |
| 2015-16 | Islanders | 81 | 26 | 14 | 40 | -3 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15:48 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 15.8% | 47.9% |
| 2016-17 | Islanders | 81 | 20 | 25 | 45 | -6 | 36 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15:39 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 11.6% | 43.7% |
| 2017-18 | Islanders | 82 | 19 | 16 | 35 | -4 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 14:44 | 3 | 1 | 138 | 13.8% | 48.3% |
| 2018-19 | Islanders | 82 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 20 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 17:58 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 13.8% | 47.7% |
| 2019-20 | Islanders | 68 | 26 | 28 | 54 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 18:52 | 5 | 3 | 175 | 14.9% | 51.8% |
| 2020-21 | Islanders | 56 | 18 | 15 | 33 | -5 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 17:50 | 4 | 0 | 121 | 14.9% | 49.4% |
| 2021-22 | Islanders | 72 | 37 | 22 | 59 | -5 | 33 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 17:41 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 21.6% | 49.4% |
| 2022-23 | Islanders | 82 | 36 | 39 | 75 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 18:26 | 8 | 1 | 222 | 16.2% | 47.3% |
| 2023-24 | Islanders | 82 | 34 | 35 | 69 | -5 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 18:05 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 13.6% | 45.2% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 61 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19:21 | 6 | 1 | 162 | 12.3% | 52.8% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 19 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17:30 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 19.4% | 49.8% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 81 | 33 | 32 | 65 | 15 | 36 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 19:39 | 9 | 1 | 186 | 17.7% | 50.4% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:23 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 15.2% | 45.4% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 20 | 25 | 45 | — | 38 | — | 15 | — | 16:31 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Artturi Lehkonen (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25) · Jonathan Marchessault (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 10:03 | PP | Assist | #? (Nelson, Toews) → 3-2 | Nelson · Schwartz · Roy Toews | Pinto · Greig Kleven · Matinpalo Ullmark (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 16:09 | EV | Goal | #? (Hughes, Schwartz) → 1-1 | Schwartz · Hughes Kulak · Malinski | Paul · Cowan · McKenna McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs NSH | |||||
| P1 09:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Necas, Nelson) → 1-1 | Nelson · Necas Burns · Juulsen | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Perbix · Wilsby Annunen (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CGY | |||||
| P2 09:07 | EV | Goal | #? (Landeskog, Makar) → 4-0 | Landeskog · Necas Juulsen · Makar | Klapka · Castagna · Tsyplakov Middleton · Whitecloud Sergeev (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brock over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Schwartz COL | 69 | 10 | |
| Brett Kulak COL | 65 | 10 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog COL | 61 | 10 | |
| T.J. Hughes COL | 60 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats