Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots141 × 0.1+14.1
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1152 × 0.01+11.5
- total124 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242124 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 124 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.9% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.9% (1234 shots before this season) — that's 3.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.3%, worth PD +4.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Hughes 4.3%, Nelson 15.6%, Toews 16.7%, Makar 10.6%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Blues | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:41 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| 2012-13 | Blues | 45 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 14.0% | 55.6% |
| 2013-14 | Blues | 80 | 25 | 31 | 56 | 28 | 27 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 17:32 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 13.3% | 56.4% |
| 2014-15 | Blues | 75 | 28 | 35 | 63 | 13 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 18:15 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 15.2% | 46.6% |
| 2015-16 | Blues | 33 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 17:12 | 1 | 1 | 63 | 12.7% | 46.9% |
| 2016-17 | Blues | 78 | 19 | 36 | 55 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 18:54 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 10.6% | 47.9% |
| 2017-18 | Blues | 62 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 15 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 19:24 | 3 | 1 | 157 | 15.3% | 41.1% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 69 | 11 | 25 | 36 | -6 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 18:08 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 6.0% | 48.6% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 71 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 18:11 | 4 | 1 | 162 | 13.6% | 45.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 40 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:42 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 11.3% | 53.8% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 37 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -13 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:27 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 7.9% | 48.6% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 71 | 21 | 19 | 40 | -17 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 17:25 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 12.6% | 46.5% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 62 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -15 | 24 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 16:22 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 11.1% | 57.1% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 81 | 26 | 23 | 49 | -6 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 17:53 | 6 | 0 | 194 | 13.4% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 50 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 16:08 | 2 | 0 | 82 | 13.4% | 59.3% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:38 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 20.0% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 23 | 23 | 47 | — | 33 | — | 5 | — | 14:17 | — | — | 140 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Josh Norris (2025-25) · Viktor Arvidsson (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 16:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Hughes, Schwartz) → 1-1 | Schwartz · Hughes Kulak · Malinski | Paul · Cowan · McKenna McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs NSH | |||||
| P1 09:11 | EV | Goal | #? (Necas, Nelson) → 1-1 | Nelson · Necas Burns · Juulsen | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Perbix · Wilsby Annunen (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 15:49 | EV | Goal | #? (Hughes, Toews) → 2-2 | Nelson · Hughes Toews · Makar | Donato · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| P2 19:49 | EV | Goal | #? (Malinski, Hughes) → 4-2 | MacKinnon · Hughes Makar · Malinski | Teravainen · Greene · Frondell Cole · Vlasic Knight (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 10:58 | PP | Assist | Landeskog (Schwartz, Toews) → 1-1 | Nelson · Lehkonen · Schwartz · Landeskog Toews | Hischier · Rodrigues · Hughes Pesce · Hughes Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jaden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hughes COL | 99 | 10 | |
| Brock Nelson COL | 69 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 45 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 45 | 10 | |
| Brett Kulak COL | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats