Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots193 × 0.1+19.3
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1266 × 0.01+12.7
- total103 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242103 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 103 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 8.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −7.7
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.3% shooting on 46 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 4.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.2 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.6%, worth PD −7.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line is our public model’s season-length forecast — frozen 2026-11-13, the day this projection was first published — it does not slide with later results; methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:04 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 4.3% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 12 | 28 | 40 | — | 22 | — | 9 | — | 15:07 | — | — | 168 | — | — |
84-G proj — pace at first publication blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project. Skater model pace-2026.11.13 — last model update Nov 13, 2026.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 13 of 14 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 12 · @ OTTL 3-40 G1 A1 PTS0 SOG0 ±14:19 TOI | |||||
| P2 18:04 | PP | Assist | Lehkonen (Kadri, Hughes) → 1-2 | Kadri · Lehkonen · Necas · Hughes Malinski | Amadio · Stützle Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo Ullmark (G) |
Nov 10 · @ TORW 6-30 G1 A1 PTS0 SOG+1 ±13:48 TOI | |||||
| P1 16:09 | EV | Assist | Nelson (Hughes, Schwartz) → 1-1 | Nelson · Schwartz · Hughes Kulak · Malinski | Paul · Cowan · McKenna McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
Nov 7 · vs DETW 4-00 G1 A1 PTS4 SOG0 ±17:09 TOI | |||||
| P2 09:46 | PP | Assist | Necas (Hughes, Makar) → 1-0 | MacKinnon · Necas · Kelly · Hughes Makar | Compher · Rasmussen · Finnie Englund · Wallinder Tarasov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with T.J. over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Schwartz COL | 99 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 70 | 10 | |
| Nazem Kadri COL | 63 | 10 | |
| Brock Nelson COL | 60 | 10 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats