Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots93 × 0.1+9.3
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1097 × 0.01+11
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.3% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (456 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Senators | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 41 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 1.7% | 45.5% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 80 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 9.3% | 23.9% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 80 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:45 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 8.1% | 43.0% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 82 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 18 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:42 | 2 | 0 | 104 | 20.2% | 36.1% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:00 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 18.2% | 29.3% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 14 | 22 | 36 | — | 41 | — | 0 | — | 13:53 | — | — | 115 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Arthur Kaliyev (2023-23) · Matt Calvert (2019-19) · Ross Colton (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 03:54 | SH | Goal | #? → 2-2 | O'Connor Toews · Juulsen | Cozens · Pinto · Stützle · Halliday Sanderson Ullmark (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 03:31 | EV | Assist | Toews (O'Connor, Kelly) → 3-1 | Kelly · O'Connor · Svechkov Toews · Malinski | Blueger · Joshua · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Tanev Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs NSH | |||||
| P2 05:08 | EV | Goal | #? (O'Connor, Juulsen) → 2-2 | O'Connor · Svechkov Burns · Juulsen | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt Annunen (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs NJD | |||||
| P3 03:47 | EV | Goal | Kelly (Burns, Svechkov) → 3-1 | Svechkov · Kelly · O'Connor Kulak · Burns | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Parker over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fedor Svechkov COL | 74 | 10 | |
| Logan O'Connor COL | 64 | 6 | |
| Brent Burns COL | 53 | 10 | |
| Sam Malinski COL | 48 | 10 | |
| Brett Kulak COL | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats