Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 68?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists33 × 1+33
- PP points40 × 0.5+20
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots225 × 0.1+22.5
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1604 × 0.01+16
- total164 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242164 = 68/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 164 points is 68 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.5 SOG/game lately vs 2.4 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.7% shooting on 51 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.2% (760 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.9%, worth PD +1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 52 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:06 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 9.9% | 30.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 55 | 20 | 18 | 38 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 16:01 | 1 | 0 | 122 | 16.4% | 40.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 63 | 17 | 17 | 34 | -11 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17:35 | 1 | 0 | 119 | 14.3% | 28.7% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | -1 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 10.3% | 35.6% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 82 | 22 | 28 | 50 | -13 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16:11 | 2 | 1 | 182 | 12.1% | 37.5% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 50 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -12 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15:12 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 8.1% | 30.6% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 31 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 5.8% | 53.8% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 82 | 20 | 18 | 38 | -9 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16:55 | 2 | 0 | 142 | 14.1% | 45.8% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 19:06 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 13.7% | 39.1% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 23 | 33 | 56 | — | 39 | — | 17 | — | 17:35 | — | — | 188 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 08:27 | SH | Goal | #? (Pospisil) → 3-3 | Pospisil Hanley · Middleton | Dvorak · Konecny · Tippett · Foerster Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 19:02 | PP | Goal | #? (Parekh, Frost) → 3-1 | Frost · Coronato · Gridin Parekh | Killorn · Washe Helleson · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ COL | |||||
| P2 10:50 | EV | Goal | #? (Backlund) → 1-4 | Backlund · Coronato Middleton · Whitecloud | Kadri · Schwartz · Hughes Kulak · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P1 02:32 | PP | Assist | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 1-0 | Farabee · Coronato · Gridin Parekh | Eberle · Beniers Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| P2 08:43 | PP | Assist | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 3-1 | Frost · Farabee · Coronato Parekh | Gaudreau · Meyers Montour · Evans Grubauer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Joel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund CGY | 138 | 10 | |
| Matt Coronato CGY | 127 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 73 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 69 | 10 | |
| Kevin Bahl CGY | 65 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats